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1、GLOBALTheGlobalMacroOutlookSlowerglobalgrowthin2018&2019Thecyclerolls:weforecast2018and2019globalrealGDPgrowth(2.7%and2.6%respectively)toslowversus2017(2.9%).Nonetheless,GlobalrealGDPgrowthisforecasttoremainin“thelonggrindingcycle”of2.5-3.0%pa,below.Demographicheadwind
2、s:Withthehigh-frequencyindustrialsectordatabeginningtorollover,webelieveitistimetofocusbackontwounderlyingtrends:weaklabourforcegrowthintheleadingeconomiesandfinancialrepressionfordecadesasgovernmentsstruggletopayforrisingentitlementspending.Weforecastmoderatetrendgrow
3、thandlowrealandnominalbondKeyforecasts,changesthismonthyieldsglobally.1)TablesforrealGDPgrowth,CPI,interestThethreeprincipalreasonswhyglobalrealGDPgrowthisforecasttoslowoverrates,currenciesandcommodityprices2018-19are:areonpages13-15.Onlineaccesstoourglobalmacroforecas
4、tsisavailableon1)Asubduedglobalcapexcycle,e.g.12June2017FortressAmerica:request.Yellowwarninglightsforthedurableexpansion2)WecontinuetoforecastatrendYen2)Thegravitationalpullofagingdemographicsworkingthroughbothappreciationandthismonthhavemovedlabourforcegrowthandlabou
5、rproductivity,e.g.just1.4%patrendUStheforecaststronger,e.g.end2017¥/US$realGDPgrowth108(110),end2018106(108)3)TheongoinggrowthfadeinChina3)ThepersistentcurrentaccountsurplusesacrossFactoryAsiasupportstrongerlocalGlobalrealGDPgrowth:Macquarie’slonggrindingcycleforecastc
6、urrencies;wehaverevisedstrongerthe5.0(GlobalrealGDPgrowth)NT$inparticular4.02.672.612.892.922.682.892.702.592.574)Our2018-20USrealGDPgrowthforecastsarenow1.9%YoY,1.6%YoYAverage1980-3.02011,3.0%p.aand1.4%YoYrespectivelyThelonggrindingcycle,2.5%p.ato2.03.0%p.a1.0Analyst(
7、s)MacquarieCapitalSecurities(Japan)Limited0.0PeterEadon-Clarke201220132014201520162017201820192020+8133512785016-TotalAverage1980-2011,3.0%p.aThelonggrindingcycle,2.5%p.ato3.0%p.apeter.eadon-clarke@macquarie.comNaraSongNote:The16-TotalistheIMF’s10-Advancedand6EMeconomi
8、es.ForecastsareMacquarie+81335127878nara.song@macquarie.comwhereavailable,alternativelytheIMF(seepages73and74).Thecou
