汽车碰撞安全风险决策中基于复合聚类的群决策专家权重确定方法-论文.pdf

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1、振动与冲击第33卷第7期JOURNALOFVIBRATIONANDSHOCKV01．33NO．72Ol4汽车碰撞安全风险决策中基于复合聚类的群决策专家权重确定方法王素娟，雷正保，赵建(1．长沙理工大学道路灾变防治及交通安全教育部工程研究中心，长沙410004；2．长沙理工大学汽车与机械工程学院，长沙410004；3．三一重工湖南汽车制造有限责任公司研究院，长沙410000)摘要：针对风险评估中群决策数据的处理可靠性问题，提出专家权重对于数据处理的重要性。从汽车碰撞安全研究的行业特色出发，依据专家社会因素指标，运用系统聚类和K一均值聚类分析方法，对专家进行专家

2、权威权重聚类；依据专家提供意见的数据一致性和个体与群体一致性程度，运用基于信息熵的方法对专家进行专家意见权重聚类；将两种聚类结果进行复合聚类，得到各位专家的最终权重。结果表明，在综合专家权威权重和专家意见权重的基础上，经复合聚类得到的专家权重具有较好的均衡性和可靠性，为系统项目的研究奠定基础。关键词：汽车碰撞安全；风险评估；群决策；社会因素指标；复合聚类；专家权重中图分类号：U461．91文献标志码：ADOI：10．13465／j．cnki．VS．2014．07．013Expert—-weightdeterminationmethodingroupdecis

3、ion-makingbasedoncompositeclusteringforautomobile-·crash-safetyriskdecision--makingWANGSu-juan一，肼Zheng—bao，ZHAOJian(1．Disasterpreventionandcontrolandtrafficsafetyengineeringresearchcenteroftheministryofeducation，ChangShaUniversityofScience＆Technology，Changsha410004，China：2．Collegeo

4、fAutomobileandMechanicalEngineering，ChangShaUniversityofScience&Technology，Changsha410004，China；3．ResearchInstituteofHunanAutomobileManufacturingCo．，Ltd．，SANYHeavyIndustryCo．，Changsha410000，China)Abstract：Aimingatdata—processingreliabilityproblemsinrisk—assessmentgroupdecision—maki

5、ng，theimportanceofexpert—weightfordataprocessingwaspresented．Startingfromtheindustrialcharacteristicsofautomobile-crash—safetystudy，accordingtoexpertsocialfactorindicators，byusingtwoanalysismethodsofsystemclusteringandK—meansclustering，expertswereclusteredusingexpert—authority—weig

6、hts．Accordingtothedataconsistencyofexpert’Sopinionsandtheconsistencylevelbetweenanindividualandagroup，byusingthemethodbasedoninformationentropy，expertswereclusteredwithexpert—opinion—weights．Thetwoclusteringresultswerecompositelyclusteredtogetthefinalweightofeachexpert．Theresultssh

7、owedthattheexpert—weightsobtainedwiththecompositeclusteringhavegoodproportionalityandreliabilitybasedoneompositingexpert—authority—weightsandexpert—opinion—weights．thefinallyobtainedexpert—weightsprovidesafoundationforthestudyofsystemsprojects．Keywords：automobile—crash—safety；riska

8、ssessment；groupdecision—ma