借还是暂停新冠流行危 机中多边银行融资的影 响最大化分析.docx

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1、Abouttheauthors3Acknowledgements3Listofboxes,figuresandtables5Acronyms61Introduction72DebtprofileofDSSI-eligiblecountries92.1Evolvingcompositionofexternaldebtstock92.2Debtvulnerabilitiesareontherise103UnderstandingtheDSSI:scopeandimplementation123.1Debtservicepaymentsduein2020and2021123

2、.2ImplementationoftheDSSI153.3Summingup:theDSSIisgoodonpaper,butisprovingchallengingtoimplement164ShouldMDBstakepartintheDSSI?174.1TheMDBposition174.2HowwouldratingsagenciesevaluateanMDBdebtsuspension?184.3ImpactofDSSIparticipationonMDBlendingcapacityduringthecrisis214.4UnderminingPCTin

3、thelongterm224.5Summingup:MDBsshouldsteerclearoftheDSSI,butexplaintheirreasoningbetter234.6OptionsforMDBstoprovidedebtreliefwithouttriggeringarrears245AcceleratingMDBlendingtolower-incomecountries:whatispossible?255.1Rampingupconcessionalfinancingtofacethecrisis255.2Debtsustainabilityim

4、plicationsofacceleratedlendingandprospectsforpermanentdebtrelief275.3Summingup:acceleratedMDBlendingisessential,despitetherisks296Conclusionsandpolicyrecommendations316.1Policyrecommendations32References34Annex1TemporarymeasurestoaccelerateMDBfinancing38BoxesBox1Limitationsofexternalpub

5、licdebtdata13Box2FactorslimitingdebtorparticipationintheG20/ParisClubDSSI15Box3HIPCandMDRI:abriefhistoryofdebtreliefFigures30Figure1Changingexternalpublicdebtstockcomposition,DSSI-eligiblecountries9Figure2Debtserviceof68DSSIcountries10Figure3BreakdownofpotentialMDBstandstillin2020and202

6、1for68DSSIcountries14Figure4ShareofoutstandingMDBportfoliotoDSSIgovernments(2018/19)18Figure5ShareofMDBportfoliosimpactedbyratingagencydowngrades(January–June2020)22FigureA1Shareofbudgetsupportapprovals,2008–2018average38FigureA2Loanprocessingtimetofirstdisbursement(sovereignloans)Table

7、s39Table1RiskofexternaldebtdistressinDSSI-eligiblecountries11Table2Debtserviceonexternalpublicdebtduefor68DSSI-eligiblecountriesin2020and2021(US$billions)12Table3Standard&Poor’smatrixforMDB‘standalonecreditrating’19Table4Standard&Poor’smethodology‘enterpriseriskprofile’matrix19