经济学原理·萨缪尔森--中山大学岭南学院ch11.ppt

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1、CH.11UncertaintyandGameTheoryA.EconomicsofRiskandUncertaintySpeculation投机:makingprofitsfromfluctuationsinprices.Theeconomicfunction:shippinggoodsacrossspaceandtime.Arbitrage套利purchaseagoodorassetinonemarketforimmediateresaleinanothermarketinordertoprofitfromapricedi

2、screpancy.Asaresultofarbitrage,thepricedifferencebetweenmarketswillbelessthanthecostofmovingthegoodfromonemarkettotheother.SpeculatorsEvenOutthePriceofaCommodityoverTimehedging套期保值sheddingrisksthroughhedging通过套期保值分摊风险TheEconomicImpactsofSpeculationImprovethepriceand

3、allocationpatternsacrossspaceandtimeaswellashelptransferrisk.Idealspeculationservestheimportantfunctionofreducingthevariationinconsumptionandcanincreasetotalutilityandallocationalefficiency.SpeculativeStorageCanImproveEfficiencyRiskandUncertaintyRisk-averse风险规避:thed

4、ispleasurefromlosingagivenamountofincomeisgreaterthanthepleasurefromgainingtheamountofincome.insuranceandriskspreading保险与风险分摊Insuranceisanotherformofgambling,butithastheoppositeeffect.Capitalmarketandrisksharingspreadingtheownershipofcapitalorofindividualriskyinvest

5、mentsamongamultitudeofownersthetroubleriseingambling“零和博弈”（zero-sumgame）“负和博弈”（negative-sumgame）MarketFailuresinInformationMoralHazard道德风险AdverseSelection逆向选择B.GameTheoryWhatHappensWhenTwoFirmsInsistonUndercuttingEachOther?BasicConceptsDuopolyPriceWar双寡头价格战Player参与人S

6、trategy策略PayoffTable支付矩阵表dominantstrategy占优策略dominantequilibrium占优均衡Nashequilibrium纳什均衡APayoffTableforaPriceWarRivalrygamenoncooperativeequilibrium非合作均衡ShouldaDuopolistTrytheMonopolyPrice?someimportantexamplesofgametheoryPrisoner’sDilemma囚徒困境:figure11-6thepollution

7、game污染博弈:figure11-7Deadlyarmsraces致命的军备竞赛winner-take-allgame胜者全得:figure11-8ToConfessorNottoConfess,ThatIsthePrisoner’sDilemmaNoncooperativeBehaviorLeadstoMorePollutionWhenTooManyPeopleEnterContests,NationalIncomeCanFall