中国保险行业个股周内效应分析—基于随机占优分析

中国保险行业个股周内效应分析—基于随机占优分析

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时间:2019-10-13

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1、AbstractThepotentialdefinitionofday-of-the-weekeffectisthataparticulartradingday'sstockreturnsonaveragearelessthanstockreturnsonotherdaysoftheweekandtheaveragestockreturnsarestatisticallysignificantlypositiveornegative.Thefirstpaperaboutitwaspublishedandfoundthat

2、stockdailyreturnsaresignificantlynegativeonMondaysandpositiveonFridaysintheU.S.stockmarket,soitisalsocalledMondayeffectorweekendeffect.Afterreviewingrelativeliterature,wefindthatthereislotsofliteratureexaminingthecalendaranomaliesinstockindexes,butthepapersstudyi

3、nganomalousstockreturnsintheindividualsharesofChinatinsuranceindustryarefew.Inaddition,fortheresearchmethods,mostexistingpaperslikechoosingtousetraditionalwayssuchasthelinearregressionanalysis,theGARCHseriesmodel,linearquantileregressionmodelandsoon,whereasno-nor

4、malandquiteheavytailscharacteristicsofthestockreturndisturbancemakestheanalysisbasedonthesemethodstobechallenged・Therefore,thepurposeofthispaperistoinvestigateempiricallytheexistenceoftheday-of-the-weekeffectinindividualsharesofChina'sinsuranceindustryandcomparew

5、hetherinsurancecompanieslistedindifferentplaceswillhaveaffectsonthemselvesusingstochasticdominance(SD)criterion.Inthisstudy,weusetwoSDtests,oneisproposedbyDavidsonandDuclos(DDtest)andtheotherisputforwardbyBarrettandDonald(Consistenttest).Besides,wehaveappliedMont

6、eCarlosimulationtocomparethesizeandpowerofthesetwotests.Afteranalysis,wehavethefollowingconclusion.First,ourtraditionaltestingapproachesshowthatthelowestandsignificantlynegativemeandailyreturnisobservedonTuesdayandthehighestvolatilityoccursonMondayinindividualsha

7、resofChina'sinsuranceindustry.Second,ourSDtestsshowthatthereisnoevidenceofMondayeffectbutTuesdayeffectintheweakformsinsomeindividualsharesofChina'sinsuranceindustry,whichcontraststothosestockmarketsindevelopedcountries.Morever,thereturn'sdominantrelationofmosttra

8、dingdayscanbejudgedatthesecond-order.Third,ourMonteCarlosimulationresultsshowthattheheavytailscharacteristicsoft-distributionhavenoeffectsonthesizeandpowerofth

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