轻工行业2019年中期策略：寻找需求稳健和改善标的

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1、目录行情回顾：上半年表现一般，行业增速明显放缓.......................................6造纸：需求不振、产能扩张制约景气............................................................8包装：需求受经济景气压制，长期关注行业整合进展.............................17家居：业绩估值双底部，地产交房量有望拐点向上.................................20文具：龙

2、头渠道壁垒强，办公直销景气高.................................................38新型烟草：海外发展迅猛，国内电子烟标准有望加速出台.....................40风险提示..........................................................................................................432019年6月30日图表目录图表1.轻工行业19年上半年反弹

3、幅度排名靠后.....................................................6图表2.包装、文娱用品表现较好................................................................................6图表3.轻工行业基金持仓情况....................................................................................6

4、图表4.造纸、家具遭机构减配....................................................................................6图表5.轻工板块合计收入同比增速状况....................................................................7图表6.轻工各板块合计净利润同比增速状况.................................................

5、...........7图表7.出口增速明显放缓..............................................................................................7图表8.社零增速仍然呈现放缓趋势............................................................................7图表9.箱板纸价格一路走低..............................

6、..........................................................8图表10.瓦楞纸价格一路走低......................................................................................8图表11.铜版纸价格走势...................................................................................

7、.............8图表12.双胶纸价格走势..............................................................................................8图表13.白卡纸价格走势..............................................................................................8图表14.白板纸价格走势...............

8、...............................................................................8图表15.机制纸及纸板产量首次下滑..........................................................................9图表16.纸制品产量大幅下滑.............................