中国影子银行问题研究

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1、FixedIncomeandEquityabcChinaResearchGlobalResearchChina’sshadowWegaugetherisksandliquidityintheshadowbankingsystembankingsystemYieldistheleadingindicatortowatch,Watchtheyieldwhiledisclosuresonvolumesarepatchyandbackward-lookingLooserloansupplyin2013,asguided

2、bythePBoC,islikelytotightenliquidityforbanksandsmallborrowersChina’srapidlyexpandingshadowbankingsystemhasattractedtheattentionofinvestors,particularlytheroleofwealthmanagementproducts(WMPs).Thisreportaimstoidentifypotentialwarningsignalsandliquiditystresspoint

3、sintheWMPmarketfromacreditandequityperspective.Ouranalysisisbasedondatafromnearly75,000WMPs22January2013offeredbybankssince2009,thebulkofwhichareinvestedinChina’strustindustryandonshorebondmarket,bothYiHuincreasinglyimportantchannelsofcreditandfunding.CreditAna

4、lystTheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimitedUnlikemostmarketparticipants,webelieveitistheyield,+85229966539yi.hu@hsbc.com.hkratherthanthetotalvolumeofWMPs,thatistheforward-ToddDunivant*lookingindicatortowatch.YieldsstartedtoriseagainattheHeadofBanksEquit

5、yResearch,AsiaPacificendof2012asloangrowthpickedup.Wethink:TheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimited+85229966599tdunivant@hsbc.com.hkAscreditgrowth,inflationandthepropertymarketEricMak*reboundin2013,bankswillhavetoofferhigheryieldsEquityAnalystonWMPstoma

6、intainfundingstability.TheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimited+85229966585erichkmak@hsbc.com.hkThiswouldraisefundingcostsforbanksandimposeMichaelChu*highereffectivefinancingratesontherealeconomy.EquityAssociateTheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLi

7、mitedAnychangeofriskappetiteorperceptionaboutWMPs+85229966926michaelwschu@hsbc.com.hkbylocalinvestorscoulddestabilisefundinginthebankingsystem,especiallyforsmallerbankswhicharemorereliantontheseproducts.Fig.1YieldsinthreesegmentsofChina’sshadowbankingsystem6.5

8、176.0InformallendingcrisisViewHSBCGlobalResearchat:http://www.research.hsbc.com5.5Banks'NPLspickup155.013*Employedbyanon-USaffiliateofHSBCSecurities(USA)Inc,andisnotregister