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1、AsiaPacificTransportationShippingMarch26,2008AsiaPacific:Transportation:ShippingMarch26,2008AsiaPacific:Transportation:ShippingInvestingattheinflectionpointWeseenear-termupsiderisksforthesector,butremainselectiveTheAEJdrybulkshippingsectorhascorrected1<>5%sinceMarch1,largelyo
2、nmacroconcerns;riskreductioncontinues.Webelievethatthesell-offBDIcreatesopportunitiesforinvestorswithanappetiteforhigh-betashares,12,<>500400%particularlyPacificBasin(2343.HK,upgradetoBuyfromNeutral),China10,000300%CoscoHoldings(1919.HK,reiterateBuy)andChinaShippingDev(1138.H
3、K,reiterateBuy).Inour6><#00aa00'>view,PBandCCHHshareslookmostoversold–7,<>500200%underperformingtheirpeersbyfalling2<>5%and32%m-t-d,respectively.We<>5,000100%upgradeourratingforCSDA(600026.SS)stocktoNeutralfromSellafterit2,<>5000%declined17%sinceDec20,2007.--100%2000200120022
4、0032004200<>5200620072008BDI(LHS)yoychange(RHS)BDItoresumereboundafterrecentweaknessSource:Datastream.OurdiscussionswithindustrypunditsleadustobelievethattherecentcorrectioninthefreightmarketcouldbeattributedtorecentcoalproductionOrderbookas%ofexistingfleetdisruptionsinAustra
5、liaandSAfrica.However,thesearetemporary.Whentheseshipmentsresume,coupledwithincrementallygreaterdemandforiron70%orepostthecontractpricesettlementwithVale,weexpecttheBDItoresume60%itsreboundoverthenextfewmonths.<>50%40%Better-than-expected1Qresultstosupportnear-termrecovery30%
6、Givenmarketjittersaboutearningsdisappointment,webelievestrong20%1Q08resultsshouldrestoreconfidencein2008earningsandliftsentiment.10%WenotethatournewEPSgrowthestimatesare9ppthigherthan0%20002001200220032004200<>52006200720082009consensusafterraisingour2008Eestimatesby8.6%onave
7、rage.WeSource:Clarksons.increaseour2009EPSestimatesby14.3%onaverageandrolloutournew2010estimates,whichassumeearningsdecline38%yoyonaverage.HeightenedvolatilityandrisksatinflectionpointsWeraiseourtargetpricesby11%onaverageforthesectoradjustedforournewrateassumptionsandmovetoa6
8、-monthtargetpriceinsteadof12monthspreviously,givenwherewethinkthecyc
