中国K12教育：模拟在线教育对线下监管的影 响和潜力

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1、2April2019AsiaPacific/ChinaEquityResearchEducationServicesResearchAnalystsThomasChong85221016164thomas.chong@credit-suisse.comAlexXie85221017462alex.xie@credit-suisse.comChinaK12TutoringSectorSECTORFORECASTModelingofflineregulationimpactandpotentialfromonl

2、ineeducationFigure1:WeexpectEDUandTALtotakemoremarketsharespostregulationwithresilientofflineandfast-growingonline6.3%4.8%4.3%3.7%3.5%2.8%1.6%1.8%2.7%2.1%7%6%5%4%3%2%1%0%2016201720182019E2020EEDUTALSource:CreditSuisseresearch■Offlinebusinessisstillresil

3、ient.ThoughregulationtighteningcausedslowdownincapacityexpansionandadditionalcoststoEDUandTAL’sofflinebusiness,webelievetheofflinebusinessofEDUandTALisstillresilient.WeexpecthigherGPMinFY20-21asutilisationraterisesunderslowerofflineexpansion.Consolidationco

4、ntinuespostregulation.WeexpectEDUandTAL’scombinedmarketsharesinChina’sK12tutoringmarkettoincreasefrom6.5%in2018to8.3%in2019and10.6%in2020.■Seculargrowthopportunityfromonline.Ridingonthetrendoftechnology-driveninnovationandstrongdemandforqualityeducation,wee

5、xpecttheonlinepenetrationrateofK12tutoringmarkettorisefrom7%in2018to16%in2021.WebelieveTALandEDUarewell-positionedtocaptureseculargrowthopportunityfromonline.■PreferEDUtoTALonclearerofflineexpansionplan.Webelievethemarkethasoverestimatedpolicyriskintheneart

6、ermandunderestimatedthepotentialofonlineeducationinthelongrun.WelikeEDU’sclearplantoexpandofflinecapacityandstrengthenonlinecapabilityonundemandingvaluation.WealsobelieveTALshouldbeabletoreaccelerateitsofflineexpansionwiththedualteachermodel.WerolloverourP/

7、EbasedvaluationforprofitableofflinebusinessfromFY19toFY20andincreaseourSOTP-basedTPforEDUandTALtoUS$112.7(fromUS$88.4)andUS$44.3(fromUS$36.6),respectively.Keyrisks:(1)adverseregulatorypolicies;and(2)failureinonlineproductimprovement.DISCLOSUREAPPENDIXATTHEB

8、ACKOFTHISREPORTCONTAINSIMPORTANTDISCLOSURES,ANALYSTCERTIFICATIONS,LEGALENTITYDISCLOSUREANDTHESTATUSOFNON-USANALYSTS.USDisclosure:CreditSuissedoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchrep