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1、本科毕业论文（设计）外文翻译原文：LowcarboneconomyThispaperexaminesdifferentcarbonpathwaysforachievingdeepCO2reductiontargetsfortheUKusingamacro-econometrichybridmodelE3MG,whichstandsforEnergy–Economy–EnvironmentModelattheGloballevel.TheE3MG,withcombinesatop-downapproachformo
2、delingtheglobaleconomyandforestimatingtheaggregateanddisaggregateenergydemandandabottom-upapproach(EnergyTechnologysubModel,ETM)forsimulatingthepowersector,whichthenprovidesfeedbacktotheenergydemandequationsandthewholeeconomy.TheETMsubmodelusesaprobabilistica
3、pproachandhistoricaldataforestimatingthepenetrationlevelsofthedifferenttechnologies,consideringtheireconomic,technicalandenvironmentalcharacteristics.Threepathwayscenarios(CFH,CLCandCAM)simulatetheCO2reductionby40%,60%and80%by2050comparedto1990levelsrespectiv
4、elyandarecomparedwithareferencescenario,withnoreductiontarget.ThetargetsaremodeledastheUKcontributiontoaninternationalmitigationeffort,suchasachievingtheG8reductiontargets,whichisamorerealisticpoliticalframeworkfortheUKtomovetowardsdeepreductionsratherthanmov
5、ingalone.ThispaperaimstoprovidemodelingevidencethatdeepreductiontargetscanbemetthroughdifferentcarbonpathwayswhilealsoassessingthemacroeconomiceffectsofthepathwaysonGDPandinvestment.Climatechange,asaresultofrisinggreenhousegasemissions,threatensthestabilityof
6、theworld’sclimate,economyandpopulation.Thecausesandconsequencesofclimatechangeareglobal,andwhilenationalgovernmentscanandshouldtakeaction,theultimatesolutionmustbeacollectiveglobaleffort.Thelatestscientificconsensus(IPCC,2007)hasfurtherstrengthenedtheevidence
7、basethatitisverylikelythatanthropogenicGHGemissionsatorabovecurrentrateswouldcausefurtherwarmingandinducemanychangesintheglobalclimatesystemduringthe21stcentury.Amajorrecentreportontheeconomicsofglobalclimatechange(Stern,2006)supportsthepositionthatthebenefit
8、sofstringentclimatemitigationactionoutweighedthecostsandrisksofdelayedaction.Althoughthereisaglobalconsiderationoftheclimatechangeeffects,individualcountrieshaveundertakendifferentstepsin
