我国货币供应量对房地产价格影响的实证研究

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1、对外经济贸易大学硕士学位论文我国货币供应量对房地产价格影响的实证研究姓名：淮文晓申请学位级别：硕士专业：金融学指导教师：周揽月201105摘要持续飙升的房价已成为中国炙手可热的话题之一，吸引着众多的注意力。尽管政府频频颁发房地产市场调控政策，房价仍无明显松动的迹象，依然在高位运行，某些地区涨势不减。人民银行最近开始运用货币市场工具，如连续两次上调一年期存贷款利率，数次提高存款准备金率，其目的即是想通过减少货币供应量，收缩流动性，达到抑制资产泡沫的目的。流动性过剩和迅速上涨的房价之间存在什么样的因果联系呢?是超发的货币引

2、发了资产价格泡沫吗?本文试图通过分析货币在资产价格波动中的作用，从货币供应量的角度解释房价非正常上涨的原因。本文以2000年至2010的月度数据为基础，通过ADF单位根检验、协整检验、误差修正模型等计量手段，得出了商品房价格与各层次的货币供应量M0、M1、~12之间均存在正向的相关关系，这也就解释了为什么人民银行频繁运用货币政策工具来调控房地产价格。关键词：商品房价格，货币供应量，流动性过剩AbstractThesoaringpriceofcommercialhousinginChinahasbeenattractin

3、geyeballsinrecentyears．Despiteoftheseriesofrestrictivepoliciesissuedbythegovernmentconsecutively,thehousingpriceremainsathi曲levelsandkeepsgoingup．TheCentralBankhasbeentryingtoexerciseseveralmonetarytoolslikeincreasinginterestrateandreserveratestoreduceliquidity,

4、ortocutmoneysupplyinordertoeasetheassetbubbles．What’Stherelationshipbetweenexcessiveliquidityandthefastrisinghousingprices?Doesexcesssupplyofmoneycontributetothegrowthofhousingprices?Thispapertriestoanswerabovequestionsbyanalyzingtherolemoneysupplyplaysinvolatil

5、ityofhousingprices，andexplainsthereasonforskyrocketinghousingpricesfromtheperspectiveofmoneysupply．BasedondatafromYear2000to2010，thispaperconductsADFunitroottest,co．integrationtest，ECMtest，andconcludesthatmoneysupplyatalllevels，M0，M1orM2areallcorrelatedtothehous

6、ingpriceandexplainswhytheCentralBankofChinahasbeentryingtowithheldhousingpricebywayofmonetarypolicy,suchasreducinginterestrates，increasingthereserverationandSOon．Key-words：Housingprice，Moneysupply,ExcessliquidityChapterIForeword1．1ResearchonexcessliquidityinChin

7、aFrommacroeconomiclevel，liquidityusuallyreferstototalamountofmoneysupply,thatisMO(moneyincirculation)，M1andM2．Excessiveliquiditymeanssupplyofliquidityexceedsthedemand，whichismainlyshownbyoversupplyofmoneywhichsurpassesthebearingcapacityoftheeconomy．Theredundantl

8、iquidityseemstobeanotherheadacheforChina’sfinancialmarket．Asannouncedbythecentralbank，China’sbroadmoneysupply(M2)hadreached69．64trillionatendofSeptember,2010，almostdo