【国防经济学英文论文】Civil-War

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1、CivilWarPaulCollierandAnkeHoefflerDraftchapterfortheHandbookofDefenseEconomicsDepartmentofEconomics,UniversityofOxfordMarch200611.IntroductionThischapteraimstocovertheeconomicanalysisofcivilwar.Itfocusesontheapplicationofeconomictheoryandeconometricstoitscauses,duration,consequencesandcost

2、s.Muchoftheliteratureofcivilwarliesoutsideeconomics.Whilewehavedrawnonthisliterature,wedonotaimtoprovideacomprehensivetreatmentofit.Allcivilwarsareintricatesocial,politicalandpsychologicalphenomenaandeachrequiresitsownanalysis.Forexample,conflictsinvariablyinvolvepersonalities:leadershipma

3、tters.Nevertheless,moderneconomicscanofferinsightsandexplanationswhichareusefulalongsidesuchcase-specificstudy.Ithelpstoguardagainstexcessivegeneralizationfromindividualsituationsthatinevitablysufferfrombothasurfeitofpossibleexplanationsandhighlypolarizedadvocacy.Rigorousempiricalstudyofci

4、vilwarrequiresaprecisedefinitionofanimpreciseandpoorlyobservedphenomenon,aprocessthatprovidesconsiderableroomforlegitimatedisagreement.InSection1wediscussthechoicesmadeinconstructingthemajordatasetsthatdescribethedatesandscaleofcivilwars.InSection2weturntoexplanationsofcivilwar,boththeoret

5、icalandempirical.InSection3weturntothescaleofconflict.Potentially,scalecanbedescribedinvariousdimensions,suchasduration,mortality,andgeographicspread,butasyetonlythedurationofconflicthasbeeninvestigatedsufficientlytowarrantdiscussion.Inthefollowingtwosectionsweconsiderthecostsandconsequenc

6、esofcivilwar,andtheprocessesofrecoveryorrelapsethatoccurduringthe2post-conflictdecade.Section6discussespolicyimplicationsandtheirefficacy.Inthefinalsectionweconsiderpromisingavenuesforfutureresearch.2.Conceptsanddata‘Whatisacivilwar?’–thisquestionisdifficulttoanswerinadecisivewayandwestart

7、withapresentationofthemostcommonlyuseddefinitionsanddatasets.Wethendiscussthreemeasuresoftheseverityofcivilwar:fatalities,durationandgeographicspread.2.1DefinitionofcivilwarThetwomostcommonlyuseddatasetsaretheCorrelatesofWar(COW)projectasdescribedinSingerandSm