【国防经济学英文论文】Weaponomics The Economics of Small Arms

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1、CSAEWPS/2006-13WeaponomicsTheEconomicsofSmallArmsPhillipKillicoatDepartmentofEconomicsOxfordUniversitySeptember2006AbstractThesmallarmsmarkethasreceivedconsiderableattentionsincetheendoftheColdWar.Smallarmsmaybeviewedasthespecificcapitalofrebelgroupsyetnostatisticalanalysisofthismarketforweaponshasye

2、ttakenplaceduetotheabsenceofdata.Thispaperintroducesthefirstefforttoquantitativelydocumentthesmallarmsmarketbycollatingfieldreportsandjournalistaccountstoproduceacross-countrytime-seriespriceindexofKalashnikovassaultrifles.Thenewdataisusedtoquantitativelyinvestigatethenatureofthesmallarmsmarket.Asimult

3、aneousequationsdemandandsupplymodelofthesmallarmsmarketisdevelopedandempiricallyestimatedtoidentifythekeydeterminantsofassaultrifleprices.Variableswhichproxytheeffectiveheightoftradebarriersforillicittrade,bothwithinandbetweencountriesareconsistentlysignificantinweaponpricedetermi-nation.Neighbours’av

4、eragemilitaryexpenditureisalsoarobustpredictorofcheapweaponprices.Whencontrollingforotherfactors,thecollapseoftheSovietUniondoesnothaveaslargeanimpactonweaponpricesasisgenerallybelieved.1.IntroductionSmallarmsareestimatedtoberesponsibleforbetween200,000-500,000deathseachyear,approx-imatelyhalfofwhic

5、hoccurduringcivilconflict(SAS(2005)andKopel,GallantandEisen(2004)).Aseconomiccommodities,weaponsrespondtoforcesofdemandandsupplyandareactivelytradedonlegalandillicitmarkets.Inordertomakesenseofthesmallarmsmarketitisnecessarytoviewthemarketasafunctionoftheincentivesandconstraintsfacedbybuyers,supplier

6、sandregulators.Thispaperintroducesthefirstroundofcross-country,time-seriesdataonweaponpricesthusmakingitpossibletoquantitativelyexaminethenatureofthesmallarmsmarket.SmallArmsSmallarmsareattractivetoolsofviolenceforseveralreasons.Theyarewidelyavailable,lowincost,extremelylethal,simpletouse,durable,hig

7、hlyportable,easilyconcealed,andpossesslegitimatemilitary,police,andcivilianuses.Asaresulttheyarepresentinvirtuallyeverysociety.–BoutwellandKlare(1999)Despitebeingakeycomponentinconflict,smallarmshaveon