投资金融之investmentproperty041206新鸿基金融集团

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1、雀新鴻基金秘集團1^SHKFINANCIALGROUPEquityResearch・HongKongCompanyNoteInvestmentPropertySectorStockpicksamidcontinualmarketrecovery6Dec2004HangLungProperties(101.HK)BuyHysanDevelopment(14.HK)BuyGreatEagleHoldings(41.HK)HoldSwirePacificA(19.HK)BuyWharfHoldings(4.HK)HoldMichaelMokCFA(852)282250

2、82michacl.mok@shkco.comInvestmentHighlightsWithimprovedeconomicfundamentalssuchasGDPgrowth,strongbusinesssentimentandimprovedcorporateearnings,demandforqualityofficespaceisontherise.Increasedofficetake-upinprimeareashasbeendrivenbytenantrelocationaswellasbusinessexpansion,especiallyf

3、orCentralDistrict.WebelieveCentralwillcontinuetotaketheleadinrentalandcapitalvalueappreciationnextyear.OfficerentinfringeareaswilllagthoseinCentral,butwillbenefitfromthespilloverasmediumtermsupplyremainsverytight.VacancyratesareexpectedtodropfurtheracrossHongKong.Wehaverevisedourrent

4、alreversionassumptionsto20%and10%forCentral,and15%and10%forotherareasinFY05andFY06,respectively.Amidaresilientretailmarketwithimprovingdomesticconsumptionandcontinualincreaseintouristspending,retailrentisexpectedtoriseby15%and10%incorebusinessareasforFY05andFY06,respectively.Inourmod

5、el,wehavealsoreviseddowntheretailrentalyieldby1%tonarrowthegapbetweenofficeandretailrentalyields,basedonthehistoricalaveragegapof2%.Stockpriceperformanceismorerelatedtocapitalvaluesratherthanrentallevels.Thelowestyieldsthatweseecurrentlyisaresultofrapidsurgeincapitalvaluespost-SARSwh

6、ilerentisnotcatchingup.Inthelongterm,webelieverentrisecanbemoresustainablethancapitalvalueappreciation.Ascapitalvalueshavebeenrisingrapidlyduringthisyearwhilesharepriceslagbehind,webelievesharepriceswouldhavea20-25%upsideshouldtheycatchupwiththerise.WerecommendBUYonHangLungProperties

7、,HysanDevelopment,andSwirePacificAandHOLDforGreatEagleHoldingsandWharfHoldings.Improvingeconomyhasledtoarobustofficemarketin2004HongKong'sofficemarketbegantoreboundduringthelastquarterof2003.AmidanuptrendinGDPgrowth,strongbusinesssentimentandimprovedcorporateearnings,overallmarketren

8、tforgradeAof