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ID:30847894
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时间:2019-01-04
《投资金融之investmentproperty041206新鸿基金融集团》由会员上传分享,免费在线阅读,更多相关内容在工程资料-天天文库。
1、雀新鴻基金秘集團1^SHKFINANCIALGROUPEquityResearch・HongKongCompanyNoteInvestmentPropertySectorStockpicksamidcontinualmarketrecovery6Dec2004HangLungProperties(101.HK)BuyHysanDevelopment(14.HK)BuyGreatEagleHoldings(41.HK)HoldSwirePacificA(19.HK)BuyWharfHoldings(4.HK)HoldMichaelMokCFA(852)282250
2、82michacl.mok@shkco.comInvestmentHighlightsWithimprovedeconomicfundamentalssuchasGDPgrowth,strongbusinesssentimentandimprovedcorporateearnings,demandforqualityofficespaceisontherise.Increasedofficetake-upinprimeareashasbeendrivenbytenantrelocationaswellasbusinessexpansion,especiallyf
3、orCentralDistrict.WebelieveCentralwillcontinuetotaketheleadinrentalandcapitalvalueappreciationnextyear.OfficerentinfringeareaswilllagthoseinCentral,butwillbenefitfromthespilloverasmediumtermsupplyremainsverytight.VacancyratesareexpectedtodropfurtheracrossHongKong.Wehaverevisedourrent
4、alreversionassumptionsto20%and10%forCentral,and15%and10%forotherareasinFY05andFY06,respectively.Amidaresilientretailmarketwithimprovingdomesticconsumptionandcontinualincreaseintouristspending,retailrentisexpectedtoriseby15%and10%incorebusinessareasforFY05andFY06,respectively.Inourmod
5、el,wehavealsoreviseddowntheretailrentalyieldby1%tonarrowthegapbetweenofficeandretailrentalyields,basedonthehistoricalaveragegapof2%.Stockpriceperformanceismorerelatedtocapitalvaluesratherthanrentallevels.Thelowestyieldsthatweseecurrentlyisaresultofrapidsurgeincapitalvaluespost-SARSwh
6、ilerentisnotcatchingup.Inthelongterm,webelieverentrisecanbemoresustainablethancapitalvalueappreciation.Ascapitalvalueshavebeenrisingrapidlyduringthisyearwhilesharepriceslagbehind,webelievesharepriceswouldhavea20-25%upsideshouldtheycatchupwiththerise.WerecommendBUYonHangLungProperties
7、,HysanDevelopment,andSwirePacificAandHOLDforGreatEagleHoldingsandWharfHoldings.Improvingeconomyhasledtoarobustofficemarketin2004HongKong'sofficemarketbegantoreboundduringthelastquarterof2003.AmidanuptrendinGDPgrowth,strongbusinesssentimentandimprovedcorporateearnings,overallmarketren
8、tforgradeAof
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