投资金融之 investment property041206新鸿基金融集团

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1、EquityResearch-HongKongCompanyNoteInvestmentPropertySectorStockpicksamidcontinualmarketrecovery6Dec2004HangLungProperties(101.HK)HysanDevelopment(14.HK)GreatEagleHoldings(41.HK)SwirePacificA(19.HK)WharfHoldings(4.HK)MichaelMokBuyBuyHoldBuyHold(852)2822

2、5082michael.mok@shkco.comInvestmentHighlightsWithimprovedeconomicfundamentalssuchasGDPgrowth,strongbusinesssentimentandimprovedcorporateearnings,demandforqualityofficespaceisontherise.Increasedofficetake-upinprimeareashasbeendrivenbytenantrelocationasw

3、ellasbusinessexpansion,especiallyforCentralDistrict.WebelieveCentralwillcontinuetotaketheleadinrentalandcapitalvalueappreciationnextyear.OfficerentinfringeareaswilllagthoseinCentral,butwillbenefitfromthespilloverasmediumtermsupplyremainsverytight.Vacanc

4、yratesareexpectedtodropfurtheracrossHongKong.Wehaverevisedourrentalreversionassumptionsto20%and10%forCentral,and15%and10%forotherareasinFY05andFY06,respectively.Amidaresilientretailmarketwithimprovingdomesticconsumptionandcontinualincreaseintouristspend

5、ing,retailrentisexpectedtoriseby15%and10%incorebusinessareasforFY05andFY06,respectively.Inourmodel,wehavealsoreviseddowntheretailrentalyieldby1%tonarrowthegapbetweenofficeandretailrentalyields,basedonthehistoricalaveragegapof2%.Stockpriceperformanceismo

6、rerelatedtocapitalvaluesratherthanrentallevels.Thelowestyieldsthatweseecurrentlyisaresultofrapidsurgeincapitalvaluespost-SARSwhilerentisnotcatchingup.Inthelongterm,webelieverentrisecanbemoresustainablethancapitalvalueappreciation.Ascapitalvalueshavebeen

7、risingrapidlyduringthisyearwhilesharepriceslagbehind,webelievesharepriceswouldhavea20-25%upsideshouldtheycatchupwiththerise.WerecommendBUYonHangLungProperties,HysanDevelopment,andSwirePacificAandHOLDforGreatEagleHoldingsandWharfHoldings.InvestmentProper

8、tySector–6Dec20041Improvingeconomyhasledtoarobustofficemarketin2004HongKong’sofficemarketbegantoreboundduringthelastquarterof2003.AmidanuptrendinGDPgrowth,strongbusinesssentimentandimprovedcorporateearnings,overallmarketrentforg