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1、EquityResearch-HongKongCompanyNoteInvestmentPropertySectorStockpicksamidcontinualmarketrecovery6Dec2004HangLungProperties(101.HK)HysanDevelopment(14.HK)GreatEagleHoldings(41.HK)SwirePacificA(19.HK)WharfHoldings(4.HK)MichaelMokBuyBuyHoldBuyHold(852)2822
2、5082michael.mok@shkco.comInvestmentHighlightsWithimprovedeconomicfundamentalssuchasGDPgrowth,strongbusinesssentimentandimprovedcorporateearnings,demandforqualityofficespaceisontherise.Increasedofficetake-upinprimeareashasbeendrivenbytenantrelocationasw
3、ellasbusinessexpansion,especiallyforCentralDistrict.WebelieveCentralwillcontinuetotaketheleadinrentalandcapitalvalueappreciationnextyear.OfficerentinfringeareaswilllagthoseinCentral,butwillbenefitfromthespilloverasmediumtermsupplyremainsverytight.Vacanc
4、yratesareexpectedtodropfurtheracrossHongKong.Wehaverevisedourrentalreversionassumptionsto20%and10%forCentral,and15%and10%forotherareasinFY05andFY06,respectively.Amidaresilientretailmarketwithimprovingdomesticconsumptionandcontinualincreaseintouristspend
5、ing,retailrentisexpectedtoriseby15%and10%incorebusinessareasforFY05andFY06,respectively.Inourmodel,wehavealsoreviseddowntheretailrentalyieldby1%tonarrowthegapbetweenofficeandretailrentalyields,basedonthehistoricalaveragegapof2%.Stockpriceperformanceismo
6、rerelatedtocapitalvaluesratherthanrentallevels.Thelowestyieldsthatweseecurrentlyisaresultofrapidsurgeincapitalvaluespost-SARSwhilerentisnotcatchingup.Inthelongterm,webelieverentrisecanbemoresustainablethancapitalvalueappreciation.Ascapitalvalueshavebeen
7、risingrapidlyduringthisyearwhilesharepriceslagbehind,webelievesharepriceswouldhavea20-25%upsideshouldtheycatchupwiththerise.WerecommendBUYonHangLungProperties,HysanDevelopment,andSwirePacificAandHOLDforGreatEagleHoldingsandWharfHoldings.InvestmentProper
8、tySector–6Dec20041Improvingeconomyhasledtoarobustofficemarketin2004HongKong’sofficemarketbegantoreboundduringthelastquarterof2003.AmidanuptrendinGDPgrowth,strongbusinesssentimentandimprovedcorporateearnings,overallmarketrentforg