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1、EMOutlook2019Anarrowpathtoperformance20November2018
2、10:58AMGMTSeeallouryear-aheadforecastsinoneplace.Visitthepage.FollowingonfromourGlobalEconomicsoutlook,ourGlobalMarketsoutlook,andourbestcross-assettradeideas,herewelayoutthemacroandmarketthemesthatwethinkwilldriveperformanceacrossassetclasses
3、inEmergingMarkets(EM)in2019.TheuncertainmacroenvironmentwarrantsanincrementallycautiousEMoutlookthatemphasizesidiosyncraticstoriesandrelativevalueideasmorethan‘globalbeta’trades.Thatsaid,ifgrowthoutsidetheUScanmodestlyimprovealongsideslowinggrowthintheUSandasturdyFedhikingcycle,EMassetshaveanar
4、rowpathtopositiveperformance.1.Alookback:‘globalgrowthdown’matteredasmuchas‘USratesup’2.Alookahead:modestheadlinegains;focusonrelativevalue3.EMequities:sharpsell-offoverstatessteadyearnings4.EMFX:morevalue,decentcarry,waitingforthegrowth5.EMlocalrates:mindthegapbetweenhigh-andlow-yielders6.EMcr
5、edit:backtofair,butbalancesheetvulnerabilitiesloomKamakshyaTrivedi+44(20)7051-4005
6、kamakshya.trivedi@gs.comGoldmanSachsInternationalCaesarMaasry+1(212)902-8763
7、caesar.maasry@gs.comGoldmanSachs&Co.LLCIanTomb+44(20)7552-2901
8、ian.tomb@gs.comGoldmanSachsInternationalRonGray+1(212)357-6762
9、ron.gray
10、@gs.comGoldmanSachs&Co.LLCSaraGrut+44(20)7774-8622
11、sara.grut@gs.comGoldmanSachsInternationalMarkOzerov+44(20)7774-1137
12、mark.ozerov@gs.comGoldmanSachsInternationalDavideCrosilla+44(20)7774-5725
13、davide.crosilla@gs.comGoldmanSachsInternationalInvestorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinm
14、akingtheirinvestmentdecision.ForRegACcertificationandotherimportantdisclosures,seetheDisclosureAppendix,orgotowww.gs.com/research/hedge.html.EMOutlook2019:AnarrowpathtoperformanceAlookback:‘globalgrowthdown’matteredasmuchas‘USratesup’nAfallinnon-USassets...oAfterQ1,afallinEMandG10FXvsUSD,andound
15、erperformanceinEMandEuropeanequitiesn...reflects‘globalgrowthdown’asmuchas‘USratesup’.IthasbeenadifficultyearforEMinvestors:aselloffinEMassetsbeganwiththeequitycorrectionofearlyFebruary,andacceleratedinmid-AprilastheDollarrallied.Mu
