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1、ABGlobalResearch12November2018GlobalMacroStrategy2019MarketsOutlook:Somethingwickedthiswaycomes?70%probabilitytheassetcyclestaysin‘expansionmode’in2019Ourdeepdiveintobusinesscyclehistoryanditsphasetransitionsshowsthat2019likelystaysintheexpansionphase.Empir
2、ically,thecyclesetsaconstructivebasecaseforkeyassets:high-single-digitreturnsforDMandEMequities,areboundinEUR/USD,andariseinUSinterestrateswiththecurveflattening,bothbylessthanin2018.AmaturingcyclewidensUScreditspreads,helpscommoditiesandkeepsgoldstable.But
3、fourchallengesraisetheriskprofileFundamentalsthatmadeusargue“thereisroomtogrow”in2018arestillpresent(flatterPhillipscurves,easyfinancialconditions&dormantimbalances).Yet,fourmacroshiftsraiserisks:a)slowerUSgrowth;b)coreinflationconvergence;c)broaderG4policy
4、normalisation;andd)ChinaeasingamidlargerFXrisks(perourEconviews).Whatcouldtakeustotheendoftheassetcycle?Atransitiontothefinalstageofthecycleinvolvesanegativeskewforriskyassets(equities,credit&EM)andlargemovesincurvesandtheUSD.Inourframework:a)anincreaseinFe
5、dFundsnorthof125bp;b)a2%inflationacceleration;c)asustained10%dropinequities;d)a2%riseincreditgrowthabovetrend;ore)a0.75%-of-GDPriseintheUSCAdeficit,raisethelikelihoodofaninauspicious2019cyclicaltransition.SlowerUSgrowthunlikelytobringequitiesdown,butlikelyt
6、odrivevolupExperiencefrompastcyclesshowsthatstockstendtodelivergainsaslongastheeconomycontinuestoexpandabovecapacity.Thepricetopayatthisstageofthecycleisapickupinaveragelevelsofvolatility,ouranalysisshows.2019globalearningsgrowthislikelytoslowandtheMSCIACWI
7、todeliversingle-digitreturns.USyieldslikelytopeak,G3ratestocatchupeventuallyOurcycleanalysis,simulationsandeconomistforecastsallpointtohigherglobalyields.TheriseinUSyields,however,islikelytobesmallervsthepasttwoyears.Crucially,in2019USyieldsshouldpeakasthec
8、urveflattensfurther.Bund&JGBcurvesshouldsteepenvsforwards;andGiltsshouldunderperformifaBrexittransitionisagreed.ExpensiveUSDvaluationoverwhelmscyclicalimpulseTheUSD’sexpensivevaluationtendstooverwhelmt
