2019-2020全球经济展望（宏观）.docx

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1、ABGlobalResearch7November2018EconomicsGlobalArendKapteynEconomistarend.kapteyn@ubs.com+44-20-75670531SethCarpenterEconomistseth.carpenter@ubs.com+1-212-7134173ReinhardCluseEconomistreinhard.cluse@ubs.com+44-20-75686722RafaelDeLaFuenteEconomistrafael.delafuente@ubs.com+1-203-7197127Gy

2、orgyKovacsEconomistgyorgy.kovacs@ubs.com+44-20-75687563PierreLafourcadeEconomistpierre.lafourcade@ubs.com+1-203-7198921JamesMalcolmEconomistjames.malcolm@ubs.com+81-3-52086214EdwardTeatherEconomistedward.teather@ubs.com+65-64955965GeorgeTharenouEconomistgeorge.tharenou@ubs.com+61-2-9

3、3243520TonyVolponEconomisttony.volpon@ubs.com+55-11-27676337TaoWangEconomistwang.tao@ubs.com+852-29717525GlobalEconomicPerspectivesGlobalEconomicOutlook2019-2020Theendof"lowforlonger"TheaggregateglobaloutputgapclosedinQ2thisyear,medianunemploymentisatthelowestlevelsince1980,wagepress

4、uresinmanydevelopedmarketsareapproachingpost-GFChighs(andinJapanattwo-decadehighs),labourshortagesinseveralEuropeancountrieswithhighunemploymentseemasacuteasinGermany(3½%unemployment),and72%ofcountriesalreadyhaveheadlineinflationrunningabovethecentralbank'starget—asharegreaterthandur

5、ingthe2003-2007boomyears.Economically,theglobaleconomydoesnotlooklikeapatientinneedofmoremonetarylifesupport.Buttheevidenceofbeing"latecycle"isatbestmixedWeassessed120prior"latecycle"episodesfor40countries,andfoundthatonseveraldimensionsthebehaviourofthedataoverthelastfourquartersint

6、heUS,EurozoneandJapaniscompletelyincongruouswithanyoftherecessionsthattookplacesince1980.EmploymentgrowthinJapan,housepriceandproductivitygrowthintheUS,coreinflationinEurope,andvariousaspectsofconsumptionandinvestmentbehaviourarenotconsistentwithbeingnearabusinesscyclepeak.Thecentral

7、banksarethusunderstandablycautious.DespitecoreinflationinDMexpectedtobebackabove2%byend2019,onparwithpre-crisislevels,centralbanksareexpectedtolifttheirpolicyratestoonlyhalfof2008/2009levelsbyend2020andstillbebelowneutral.Andournow-castingmodelssuggesttheglobaleconomyisskiddingWelaun

8、chourglobaln