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1、2018GlobalEconomicandMarketOutlookMakehaywhilethesunshines…MacquarieSecurities(Australia)LimitedAs2017drawstoaclose,thecombinationofgoodglobalgrowthandlowinflationRicDeverellhasseenriskassetsmovesubstantiallyhigher.However,despitethestrong+61282324307ric.deverell@macquarie.c
2、omgains,therallyhasbeenamongthemostunlovedinhistory,asmanyinvestorshaveremainedonthesidelines,worriedaboutvaluationandtheriskoffurthershocks.Overthefollowing96pagesweprovidedetailedforecastsfortheglobaleconomyandmajormarkets.Whiletheconsensusremainsnervous,wefeelthatthegloba
3、leconomyhasfinallymovedontoastrongerfooting,withaboveaveragegrowthlikelytopersistover2018,notwithstandingaslowdowninChina.This,combinedwithstilllowinterestratesshouldseecurrent‘goldilocks’conditionscontinuewellinto2018.Wenote,however,thatinvestorsshouldmakehaywhilethesunshin
4、es,as2019islikelytobemoredangerousasstrongerwagesandinflationintheUSalongNovember2017withthefirstratehikeinEurope,collidewithfurtherChinaweakness.Pleaserefertopage98forimportantdisclosuresandanalystcertification,oronourwebsitewww.macquarie.com/research/disclosures.MacquarieR
5、esearch2018globaleconomicandmarketoutlookAnalystsContentsMacquarieSecurities(Australia)LimitedRicDeverellExecutivesummary.......................................................................................3+61282324307ric.deverell@macquarie.comJustinFaboGlobaleconomicoutl
6、ook...............................................................................5+61282320696justin.fabo@macquarie.comJasonTodd,CFATopicalEssays..............................................................................................7+61282373134jason.todd@macquarie.c
7、omGivemehigherwages,inflationandyieldsOLord,butnotjustyet…..........8MacquarieCapitalMarketsCanadaLtd.DavidDoyle,CFATheoutlookforUSproductivity...................................................................14+14168483663david.doyle@macquarie.comNeilShankarChina:Embracing
8、anewpoliticalcycle.......................................................17
