麦格理-全球-债券市场-与过去决裂？

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1、GLOBALBreakwiththepast?US–30Ybondyield(%)–firmlyinLTdecliningchannelBonds:Thekingisdead;longlivetheking16As10Yyieldspassed2.5%arewitnessingarupture?1412Itmustbethattimeoftheyear.Overthelast24hours,anumberofBond10Gurushavedeclaredthethree-decade-oldbondmarketrallyover(yetagain).86Onefeelsfo

2、rhighvolumeandextremepricesensitivityglobalmarkets(FIand4FX),andhencetheirpreoccupationwithpanicheadlines.Toputthatin2perspective,at2.5%,10YbondyieldsareonlybacktoMar’17level,whilethe010/2yieldcurveismerelybacktoChristmas.Bothremaininalong-termn-77c-79n-82c-84n-87c-89n-92c-94n-97c-99n-02c-0

3、4n-07c-09n-12c-14n-17JuDeJuDeJuDeJuDeJuDeJuDeJuDeJuDeJudecliningpattern.Thesameappliesto30Yandthe30/2yieldcurve,while30Yneither5,10nor5/5breakevenrateshavechangedmuchoverthepastyear.Source:Bloomberg,MacquarieResearch,January2018Nevertheless,achangingeconomicbackdropandCBs’rethinkoftheirpol

4、icytoolscould(thistime)createmuchhigherassetpricevolatilities.AsdiscussedUS–30/2yieldcurve(%)vsFedinour’18preview,weviewtherecentcoordinatedglobalrecoveryasagifttightening–flatteningasFedtightensfromequallycoordinatedmonetarypolicies(sincetheFeb’16‘PlazaAccord’),massiveinfusionofCBliquidity

5、(~US$3.5trillionforG4+SwisssinceFeb’163.11stTighteningandUS$2.2trillionin’17orgrowthrateof~15%vsglobalGDPnominal2ndTightening2.6growthof~5%-6%)andChina’ssecond-largest-everstimulus.2.14thTighteningThequestioniswhethertheprivatesectorhasawokenfromitsdecade-long1.6slumber—andifithas,wouldpro

6、ductivityandvelocityofmoneyrebound,3rdTighteningnecessitatingliquiditywithdrawal(otherwisestagflationcouldloom)withrising1.15thTighteningcostofcapitalandasteepeningcurve,confirmingstrength.Ifontheother0.6handthis‘recovery’isessentiallyanafterglowofCBsandstatepolicies,thent-14pr-15n-15t-15pr

7、-16n-16t-16pr-17n-17ct-17ec-14eb-15ug-15ec-15eb-16ug-16ec-16eb-17ug-17ec-17OcDFAJuAOcDFAJuAOcDFAJuAODwithdrawingsupportswouldpromptdisinflationarypressurestore-appear—YieldCurve(30/2)andneitherdemandnorsupplyofcapitalcouldjustifyhigherrates.Hence,Source: