麦格理-全球-邮政行业-亿禧邮政易新上市时代

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1、UNITEDSTATESBitautoBITAUSOutperformPostYixinlistederaPrice(at04:09,18Nov2017GMT)US$39.13ValuationUS$65.12Event-DCF(WACC15.7%,beta1.4,ERP10.0%,RFR3.5%,TGR-6.2%)3Q17revenueandnon-GAAPnetprofit(inclaccretion)beatconsensusby12-monthtargetUS$47.006%and3%,respectively,drivenbystrongtransactionbusine

2、ssrevenue12-monthTSR%+20.1growthandacceleratingmediabusinessgrowth.YixinraisedRmb5.5bnGICSsectorSoftware&throughaHKIPOataUS$6.3bnvaluation.WelowerourTPfromUS$50toServicesUS$47andswitchtoSOTPvaluation.Thisvalues1)theadvertisingandMarketcapUS$m2,900subscriptionbusinessatUS$6/shareora10xFY18EPE,2)

3、thedigital30-dayavgturnoverUS$m58.6marketingsolutionsbusinessatUS$1/shareora10xFY18EPE,andNumbersharesonissuem74.113)YixingroupatUS$31/shareora35xFY18EPE.InvestmentfundamentalsYearend31Dec2016A2017E2018E2019EImpactRevenuem5,7738,51211,34513,0093Q17resultsbeatand4Q17guidanceinline.3Q17revenuegr

4、ew54%yoyEBITm5709842,0982,503Reportedprofitm-504-1586-224-155toRmb2.3bn,exceedingthehigh-endguidanceofRmb2.2bnand6%/2%Adjustedprofitm2273701,0221,196higherthanconsensus/MQestimate.GAAPoperatingmarginwasskewedGrosscashflowm4959442,0412,432CFPSRmb7.3112.0926.2431.44duetotheshare-basedcompensation

5、inYixin,whilenon-GAAPoperatingCFPSgrowth%4.265.3117.119.8marginwasstableat11%.4Q17revenueguidanceofRmb2.40-2.45bnisinPGCFPSx35.521.59.98.3EPSadjRmb3.384.7413.1715.48linewithconsensusestimatesofRmb2.42bnandimplies42-46%yoygrowth.EPSadjgrowth%-13.640.3177.817.5Yixintotripleearningsin2018.Transac

6、tionvolumereached380kPERadjx76.854.819.716.8TotalDPSRmb0.000.000.000.00(incl.300kfromYixin)in9M17andiswellontracktoitshalfmilliontargetforTotaldivyield%0.00.00.00.02017.Weestimatethetotalnumberoftransactionswillreach521kin2017ROA%2.82.54.75.2ROE%2.53.16.97.9and811kin2018.Yixin’sself-operatedloa

7、nbalancereachedRmb20bninEV/EBITDAx40.221.210.79.01H17.Weestimatetransactionservicesrevenuewillincrease61%yoytoNetdebt/equity%47.336.443.151.5P/BVx1.91.31.21.2Rmb6bnin2017,contributing53%oftotalrevenue.Marginexpansionissupportedbyt