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1、WCHINAStateofChina’seconomyInsideFeedbackfromrecentmarketing:Market&SectorPerformance(MSCIChina)2SentimentturningevenbetterMarket&SectorPerformance(A-share)6Overthepastthreeweeks,wemetwithinvestorsinEuropeandAsiatoActivitydatawatch7discussChinamacroandmarkets.Thesentimentisevenbettert
2、hansixPolicywatch8monthsagowhenwedidthepreviousroundofglobalmarketing(ourtakeawaysbackthen:Highestsentimentintwoyears).InvestorsarenoCommoditiesspace9longerconcernedabouttraditionalriskssuchasdebt,property,currencyandPropertymarket10capitaloutflows.Insteadthekeyinterestsincludethemacr
3、ooutlookfor2018Liquiditywatch11(theconsensusisagradualandmodestslowdown),theongoingfinancialtightening,theriskofinflationandratehike,alsothemedium-termoutlookExchangerate12afterthePartyCongress.Thenotecoversthemaintopicsofconversation.Industrialindicators13Sentiment:TurningevenbetterC
4、hinainasnapshot14Sentimentisupbeatnowasinvestorscitedvariousreasonstostaybullish:theglobaleconomyisrecoveringinasynchronizedway;TherallysofarisdrivenNovDataForecastsbyEPSgrowth,sovaluationishigherbutnotcrazy;ThebreadthofrallyissoDateIndicatorNov(fcst)Priorlimitedthatthereisroomforchas
5、inglaggards;TherallyhasconcentratedonActivitiessectorleadersandjunkstockshaven’tmovedmuch.ThevaluationforChina31-NovNBSmfgPMI51.851.6financialsandSOEsaremuchlowercomparedwiththeirglobalpeers;global01-DecCaixinmfgPMI50.851.0EMfundsstillunderweightChinaandmoresouthboundmoneyfrommainland
6、08-DecExports,%yoy6.06.908-DecImports,%yoy12.017.2ChinawillcometoHKnextyear…08-DecTradebal.,US$bn31.438.2Interestingly,duringthetrip,theamountoftimewespentondebtisprobably14-DecIndustrialprod.%yoy,6.06.214-DecFAI,ytd%yoy7.17.3theleastsince2011.Theviewsexpressedinournote,China’sDebt:My
7、ths14-DecRetailSales,%yoy10.210.0andRealities,whichusedtobequitecontroversial,havebecometheInflationconsensus.AlsoourpositiveRMBview,whichusedtoreceivecloseto100%09-DecCPI,%yoy1.71.9pushback12monthsago,hasalsobecometheconsensus.09-DecPPI,%yoy5.96.9MonetaryOverall,ourimpressionaseconom
8、istsi
