外汇市场展望（新兴市场）

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1、RegionalviewsAsiaStillpositiveontotalreturnsWemaintainapositiveviewonthetotalreturnsofhigheryieldingcurrenciesintheregion,oftheINRandtheIDRnamelytheINRandtheIDR.Globalmarketvolatilitycouldincreaseoverthecomingweeks,whichcouldimpactthesecurrenciesnegativelybutnotenoughtooffsetth

2、eirtotalreturns.ThedisinflationtrendsandreformstoriesinbothIndiaandIndonesiaremainrelevant.Inthenearterm,itwouldbepreferabletofundlongpositionsforthesecurrenciesoutoftheEUR.PrefertheRMB,theTHBandWehaveadiverseviewontheloweryieldingcurrenciesinAsia–favouringtheRMB,theTHBtheSGDto

3、theKRWandtheandtheSGDovertheKRWandtheTWD.ThispreferenceisinpartdeterminedbytheirTWDrespectivecentralbanks’FXpolicies:thePBoCistryingtochangecorporates’one-wayRMBdepreciationexpectationsandtheMASisturninglessdovishinitsrhetoric,whileothercentralbanksareeithertryingtobuildFXreser

4、vesorencouraginglocalstoinvestabroad.Wealsotakeintoaccountforeignpositioningintherespectiveequity/bondmarkets.EquityinflowsforKoreaandTaiwanhavebeensubstantialyear-to-date,incomparisontolowpositioninginThailand.USD-PHPovershootingmayAsfortheremainingcurrencies,wethinkovershooti

5、nginUSD-PHPwillcontinueforthetimecontinue;USD-MYRstablebeinguntilthecentralbankadoptsmorehawkishFXandmonetarypolicies,andUSD-MYRmayremainquitestickyaround4.30.CEEMEAInCEEMEA,theloweryieldershaveperformedwellasthemarket’sattentionmovestowardsCEE-3rallyrunningoutofratesnormalisat

6、ioninEurope,butthiscouldberunningoutofsteam.WithstrongdomesticsteamgrowthdynamicsandrisinginflationintheCEE-3,itisnosurprisethatthesecurrencieshavebenefittedfromashiftinperceptionregardingareversalofextremelyloosepolicy.TheCZKhasstrengthenedfromtheactualstartofnormalisation–wit

7、htheCNBhikingratesby20bpinAugust–whiletherehasbeensomemorehawkishcentralbanktalkinPoland.TheHUFhasnotseenthesamecentralbankpivotbutarguablyhasthemosttogainifashiftinrhetoricweretocomeabout,giventhedistancetheHUFisfromovervaluationterritoryandtherelativelackofpositioning.Thisfin

8、alaspectmaymakeitdifficultfortheCZKtomakesignificantga