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1、MidyearEmergingMarketsOutlookandStrategyContentsEMtoptraderecommendations3MarketOverview4EMMacroOutlook16EMTechnicals23EMLocalMarketsStrategy25EMHardCurrencyStrategy29EMEquityStrategy33Appendix35LatinAmerica46EMEAEM61EmergingAsia81SpreadsandyieldsNote:Asof5June19COB.Source:JPM,Bloomberg.EmergingMark
2、etsStrategyLuisOganesAC(1-212)834-4326luis.oganes@jpmorgan.comJ.P.MorganSecuritiesLLCJonnyGouldenAC(44-20)7134-4470jonathan.m.goulden@jpmorgan.comJ.P.MorganSecuritiesplcDown,butnotout,aslowerratescushiontheimpactofaweakerEMgrowthoutlookin2H19EmergingMarketsStrategyLuisOganesAC(1-212)834-4326luis.oga
3、nes@jpmorgan.comJ.P.MorganSecuritiesLLCJonnyGouldenAC(44-20)7134-4470jonathan.m.goulden@jpmorgan.comJ.P.MorganSecuritiesplcKeytopics·WeakergrowthexpectationswillbepartlyoffsetbyfallingyieldsjustifyingadefensivebutnotoverlybearishEMoutlook,withexpectationsof2-3%returnsforEMfixedincomein2H19.·Westaysm
4、allUWEMFX,OWlocalratesvialowyielders,andMWinEMsovereignandcorporatecredit.·RiskslookskewedtoweakerEMmarketsgivensignificantgrowthuncertaintyinalatecycleenvironment,despitelesschallengingEMvaluations.Macrodevelopments·Considerableuncertaintypointstosignificantdownsideriskstoourforecastofbroadlystable
5、EMgrowth.Whilewehavemarkedgrowthlowerinmanycountries,itremainsunclearhowtradetensionsmightevolveandtheextenttowhichtradeflowsandbusinesssentimentwillbeimpacted.·FurtherdovishrevisionstoDMpolicyrateshaveopenedupmorespaceforEMpolicymakerstoease.OurmodelsuggeststhatEMcentralbankshavespacetocutratesby49
6、bpbetweennowandyear-end,versusourforecastof30bp.Toptradingthemes·EMlocalmarkets:stayUWFXandOWRatesvialowyielders.InEMAsiaRates,weareOWThailandandoutrightlong10yCGBs,10yIGBs,15yINDOGBsandTWD5y5yreceivers,against2ySGDpayersvs.USD.InEMEAEMRatesstayOW,withnewOWsaddedinRomaniaandRussiatoOWCzechRepublicvs
7、.UWHungary;staylong1yNigeriaT-bills,5yILSreceiversand5y5yCZKreceivers(vs.EUR),close2yHUFpayersandaddZARflatteners.InLatamRates,weareMWhavingcutOWBrazilandPeruvs.UWChile.Inoutrighttrades,holdlonglinker
