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ID:5349514
大小:4.84 MB
页数:67页
时间:2017-12-08
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1、RegionalviewsAsiaStillpositiveontotalreturnsWemaintainapositiveviewonthetotalreturnsofhigheryieldingcurrenciesintheregion,oftheINRandtheIDRnamelytheINRandtheIDR.Globalmarketvolatilitycouldincreaseoverthecomingweeks,whichcouldimpactthesecurrenciesnegativelybutnotenoughtooffsetth
2、eirtotalreturns.ThedisinflationtrendsandreformstoriesinbothIndiaandIndonesiaremainrelevant.Inthenearterm,itwouldbepreferabletofundlongpositionsforthesecurrenciesoutoftheEUR.PrefertheRMB,theTHBandWehaveadiverseviewontheloweryieldingcurrenciesinAsia–favouringtheRMB,theTHBtheSGDto
3、theKRWandtheandtheSGDovertheKRWandtheTWD.ThispreferenceisinpartdeterminedbytheirTWDrespectivecentralbanks’FXpolicies:thePBoCistryingtochangecorporates’one-wayRMBdepreciationexpectationsandtheMASisturninglessdovishinitsrhetoric,whileothercentralbanksareeithertryingtobuildFXreser
4、vesorencouraginglocalstoinvestabroad.Wealsotakeintoaccountforeignpositioningintherespectiveequity/bondmarkets.EquityinflowsforKoreaandTaiwanhavebeensubstantialyear-to-date,incomparisontolowpositioninginThailand.USD-PHPovershootingmayAsfortheremainingcurrencies,wethinkovershooti
5、nginUSD-PHPwillcontinueforthetimecontinue;USD-MYRstablebeinguntilthecentralbankadoptsmorehawkishFXandmonetarypolicies,andUSD-MYRmayremainquitestickyaround4.30.CEEMEAInCEEMEA,theloweryieldershaveperformedwellasthemarket’sattentionmovestowardsCEE-3rallyrunningoutofratesnormalisat
6、ioninEurope,butthiscouldberunningoutofsteam.WithstrongdomesticsteamgrowthdynamicsandrisinginflationintheCEE-3,itisnosurprisethatthesecurrencieshavebenefittedfromashiftinperceptionregardingareversalofextremelyloosepolicy.TheCZKhasstrengthenedfromtheactualstartofnormalisation–wit
7、htheCNBhikingratesby20bpinAugust–whiletherehasbeensomemorehawkishcentralbanktalkinPoland.TheHUFhasnotseenthesamecentralbankpivotbutarguablyhasthemosttogainifashiftinrhetoricweretocomeabout,giventhedistancetheHUFisfromovervaluationterritoryandtherelativelackofpositioning.Thisfin
8、alaspectmaymakeitdifficultfortheCZKtomakesignificantga
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