巴黎银行-新兴市场-外汇市场-外汇驱动力

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1、Thisdocumenthasbeenproducedby:CADmomentumremainsthemostbullishintheG10,byourBNPParibasLondonBranchmeasure.RatescontinuetosendverybullishsignalsfortheCAD.GBPmomentumisalsobullish,atascoreof+30(-/+100scale).NatalieRickardBothFXandratesmarketsnowappearbullishfortheGBP.FXStrategistHavi

2、ngreachedabullishscoreof+69inJune,EURmomentumisMichaelSneydnowneutral.Theratesandequitycomponentsarebothbearish.GlobalHeadofFXStrategy&NZDmomentumhasturnedincreasinglybearishfrom-67lastweekCross-AssetStrategistto-78,asequitymomentumhasbecomemorebearish.Chart1:CADratesmomentumremainsb

3、ullishChart2:GBPmomentumisbullishChart3:EURmomentumbacktoneutralChart4:NZDbearishmomentumcontinuesAllchartsources:Macrobond,BNPParibasAllchartsources:Macrobond,BNPParibasInCharts1and2,eachcomponentscorevariesbetween+/-33.3.InCharts3and4,theoverallscoreisasumofthethreecomponentsandvari

4、esbetween+/-100.BNPParibasFXmomentum(scaleof-100to100)100Bullishmomentum5421-Nov-201714-Nov-20175030161640-1-2-5-50-41-100Bearishmomentum-78CADGBPUSDCHFSEKEURNOKJPYAUDNZDSource:BNPParibasPleaserefertoimportantinformationattheendofthereportwww.GlobalMarkets.bnpparibas.comBNPParibasFXmo

5、mentumportfolioreturns*Source:Macrobond,BNPParibas*Portfolioofequally-weightedbasketsofeachG10currencywithpositionsizesdeterminedbythemomentumscoresand10%voltarget.Indexedto1Jan2010.Three-yearplotofG10currencymomentumscoresUSDoverallmomentumGBPoverallmomentumEURoverallmomentumJPYovera

6、llmomentumAUDoverallmomentumCADoverallmomentumAllchartsources:Macrobond,BNPParibasAllchartsources:Macrobond,BNPParibas21November20172FXQuantInsightwww.GlobalMarkets.bnpparibas.comNZDoverallmomentumCHFoverallmomentumNOKoverallmomentumSEKoverallmomentumAllchartsources:Macrobond,BNPParib

7、asAllchartsources:Macrobond,BNPParibasBriefintroductiontoBNPParibasFXMomentumBNPParibasFXMomentummeasuresthestrengthofacurrency’sbullishorbearishtrend,providingascoreforeachcurrencybetween+100and-100.Thelargerthescoreforacurrency,thestrongeritstrendappearstobe.Whenanexchangeratehasatr

8、end,i