巴黎银行-新兴市场-宏观策略-美联储之后的新兴市场货币政策展望-2019071.pdf

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1、FOCUS

2、EMERGINGMARKETSPleaserefertoimportantinformationand11July2019MARdisclosuresattheendofthisreport™EMECONOMICS

3、EMSTRATEGYEMmonetarypolicyoutlook–AftertheFedProspectiveFedeasingspursEMratecutting.Inourview,policysignalsthisweekfromFedgovernorJeromePowellhel

4、pKEYMESSAGEScementthecaseforaFedratecutsoon(seeUS:Don'tfighttheProspectivemonetarypolicyeasingbycentralbanksinFed).Infact,aradicalchangesincelatelastyearinmarketadvancedeconomiesreinforcesourconvictionaboutexpectationsfortheUSFedhasgonehand-in-handwithashiftu

5、pcomingratecutsinemergingmarkets.inmarketexpectationsforpolicyratesinEMs;switchingfromhikinglastyeartoeasingthisyear(Fig.1).Besidesglobalfactors,wethinkdomesticelements(slowinggrowthandtameinflation)alsoargueforrateDovishFedandECBdonottellthefullstory.Besides

6、cutsinseveralEMs.upcomingpolicyeasingbycentralbanksinadvancedeconomies,wethinkdomesticfactorsalsoargueforratecutsinWenowexpectatleast10EMcentralbankswecovertoEMs–namely,disappointingrealGDPgrowthandlowinflation.cuttheirbenchmarkratesfurtherin2019–mostofthemMa

7、rketsnowpriceinlowerpolicyratesacrossEMregions.inQ3already.OurtrackershowshowmarketshavecutbacktheirrateprojectionssofarthisyearinallthreeEMregions(Fig.2).WeseenopolicyratehikeinrelevantEMsthisyear,andhavebroughtforwardourforecastratecuts–includingPolicyactio

8、nsoon.Weexpectatleast10EMcentralbankstoforMexico,Brazil,IndonesiaandSouthAfrica.cutratesintheremainderof2019–includingratecutsalreadyinQ3,rangingfromEgyptandSouthAfricatoBrazilandMexico.Risksseemskewedtofurthereasing.Ifglobalandlocalgrowthsoursfurtherwhileinf

9、lationremainstame,riskstoourEMpolicyrateviewslookbiasedtothedownside.MARKETVIEWSEasierglobalfinancialconditionssupportourmoreconstructiveviewonEM.WeexpectstructurallylowerrealinterestratesintheUSandEuropetobodewellforEMlocalcurrencyrates.Ceterisparibus,wecont

10、inuetoforeseelowsystemicriskgoingforwardandarefullypositionedinflatteners,aimingatgettingthemostoutofthesystemicglobalcompressionofinterestrates,towhichbothlocalEMcurvesandsovereigncredit