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1、目录一、行业宏观数据汇总3二、销售:增速略降,量价齐升4三、投资:高位趋稳,韧性仍足6四、资金:持续回暖,融资与回款双双改善7五、房价:坚决遏制房价上涨8六、板块表现:估值见底,基本面持续向好9七、投资建议9八、风险提示9插图目录10表格目录10一、行业宏观数据汇总2018年1-10月,商品房销售面积133,117万平方米,同比增长2.2%,增速比1-9月回落0.7个百分点。其中,住宅销售面积增长2.8%,办公楼销售面积增长-10.5%,商业营业用房销售面积增长-2.8%。商品房销售额115,914亿元,同比增长12.5%
2、,增速回落0.8个百分点。其中,住宅销售额增长15.0%,办公楼销售额增长-6.5%,商业营业用房销售额增长1.7%。2018年1-10月,全国房地产开发投资完成额99,325亿元,同比名义增长9.7%,增速比1-9月回落0.2个百分点。其中,住宅投资70,370亿元,增长13.7%,增速比1-9月回落0.3个百分点。住宅投资占房地产开发投资的比重为70.8%。销售商品房销售面积(万平米)其中:住宅办公楼商业营业用房商品房销售金额(亿元)其中:住宅办公楼商业营业用房119,313100.0%103,4792,9498,11
3、086.7%2.5%6.8%2.9%3.3%-9.3%-1.1%13.3%15.6%-5.0%3.0%9.9%14.0%-11.4%-9.1%16.4%19.4%-3.3%-6.0%15.7%22.7%7.8%-5.1%-61.7%11.4%16.3%-1.2%-1.1-0.8-3.0-2.9-1.2-0.8-1.7-2.6-0.2-0.1-1.0-0.60.5-0.34.60.50.1-1.00.91.56.60.21.2-0.2133,117100.0%115,4323,2539,03886.7%2.4%6.8%104
4、,132100.0%115,914100.0%88,3644,2248,881房地产开发投资完成额(亿元88,66584.9%4.1%8.5%100.0%70.8%5.0%12.0%98,3554,6389,88199,32570,3704,91111,88684.9%4.0%8.5%100.0%70.8%4.9%12.0%投资其中:住宅办公楼商业营业用房房屋新开工面积(万平米)其中:住宅办公楼商业营业用房土地购置面积(万平米)土地成交价款(亿元)房企到位资金(亿元)其中:国内贷款利用外资自筹资金定金及预收款个人按揭贷款6
5、2,8064,40910,650152,583100.0%168,754100.0%112,4114,33214,41219,36610,00273.7%2.8%9.4%100.0%100.0%123,8754,90716,18721,96311,69573.4%2.9%9.6%100.0%100.0%121,882100.0%135,636100.0%资金18,0414340,59640,25917,52214.8%0.0%33.3%33.0%14.4%19,7278045,51244,94219,40814.5%0.1
6、%33.6%33.1%14.3%2.2%-0.72.8%-0.5-10.5%-1.2-2.8%-1.712.5%-0.815.0%-0.6-6.5%-1.51.7%-1.39.7%-0.213.7%-0.3-12.0%-0.6-9.2%-0.116.3%-0.119.0%-0.4-0.7%2.6-4.9%1.115.3%-0.420.6%-2.17.7%-0.1-5.2%-0.1-35.6%26.110.8%-0.616.3%0-0.9%0.316,83914,5653991,17214,73612,5335701,241
7、12,1468,6925721,32019,29014,1046041,6732,9151,82515,2002,25985,6364,8121,91734.9%-3.6%34.0%-0.8%38.0%-24.6%41.1%-15.1%32.8%6.7%31.9%11.0%47.6%-14.8%32.3%-10.2%14.2%8.9%13.3%13.3%14.8%-17.7%2.8%-12.8%4.2%20.3%3.5%17.7%21.9%40.3%-5.4%-2.2%10.7%16.4%-7.3%18.6%13.6%14
8、.4%30.0%7.6%310.5%363.8%13,80411,95330492811,7829,9914141,00010,6607,5645021,23616,17111,4645751,7752,5971,69313,7541,686374,9164,6831,886-18.0%-17.9%-2