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1、ABGlobalResearch23October2018GlobalMacroStrategyGlobalMacroStrategyGlobalEMNavigator:HowtoovercomeEM'sweakestlinkEMFXisamajorproblem.Thankfully,investorscandosomethingaboutitWehavelongarguedthatEMcurrenciesarethemostproblematicpartoftheEMassetspectrum.Theyhavefundamentallycompromisedthe
2、valueinthisassetclass.Despiteseveralpronouncementsofundervaluation,theyhavecontinuedtoweakenthroughtheyears,andthebadnewsisthatwebelievethiswillcontinue.ThegoodnewsisthatthisriskcanbehedgedtoimproveSharperatiosinEMequitiesbyafactorof2-3ormore.Theimprovementsfordebtareevenmoredramatic.On
3、ejusthastolookforliquidcurrencieswhichdonotcostmuchandwhicharedrivenbythesamefactorsasEMcurrencies.Theeditorialofthisnotelaysoutthethesisandallthenumbers.Equities:Notthereyet,butmovingfastEquityvaluationsinEMlookcheapopticallybutthisreallyisdrivenby3-4deepValuesectors.EMGrowthsectors,al
4、thoughwellcheaperontheyear,stilltradeatexpensivevaluationsrelativetotheirDMcounterparts.Thusfar,thevaluationinEMhasadjustedinlinewiththerisingcostofcapital,andwethinkmorede-ratingispossible,albeitmoreslowly.EMearningsforecastsforthenextyearcouldbetoooptimistic.However,marketsareadjustin
5、gquickly,andsomestabilityinourEMcyclicalindicatororsignsofcapitulationwouldenableustopotentiallytakeamorepositiveview.Inthemeantime,wearelongIndonesiarelativetoIndia,KorearelativetoTaiwanandEMBanksrelativetoEMMetals&Mining.Despitebeingthecentreofthetradewar,webelieveChinawilloutperformt
6、herestofEMincomingmonths.FX:ThewindowforatacticalrallyisstillopenThesubduedperformanceofinterestrate-sensitiveequitysectors,likehomebuilders,hasbeguntosketchtheboundaryofrealratespainintheUS.AswegetdeeperintoQ4,thedataintheUSislikelytomoreclearlyshowmoderationfromamuchabove-trendlevel.I
7、thasbeenourcontentionthanthestabilityinratesthatfollowsfromthiswillmakeforachangeinthenatureofEMstress,providingawindowofopportunityforthedeficitcurrenciesthathigherUSrateshavepenalisedthemost,whileshiftingthefocusofpaintothemoregrowth-sensitivecurrenciesofAsia.WearelongMXN/USD
