造纸行业跟踪报告：旺季将临板块看涨，关注龙头成本优势

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1、内容目录废纸行情回顾：短线纸价涨跌交替，长期上行逻辑清晰.-4-淡季下游需求不振，纸价震荡小幅下行.......................................................-4-后市走势分析：废纸看涨逻辑清晰..............................................................-4-废纸的直接利润属性料将更加突出..............................................................-6-文化纸行情回顾：

2、淡季需求不振，白卡纸领跌...................................................-7-文化纸价格均有下挫，白卡纸跌幅最高.......................................................-7-需求疲软、开工率不足与库存高位造成纸价下跌........................................-7-白卡纸后市展望：价格或继续小幅下行.....................................................

3、..-8-三季度造纸业分析：旺季逐渐开启，板块表现看好............................................-9-整体供需格局不改，成本支持纸价上行.......................................................-9-造纸板块三季度历史表现良好...................................................................-10-2019年造纸业展望：龙头超额收益更加显著，木浆系确定性更高............

4、......-11-木浆系：浆价上行有支持，行业格局助推龙头议价权.............................-11-废纸系：废纸直接利润属性进一步突出，关注龙头政策应变能力............-14-风险提示............................................................................................................-15-行业政策变化风险.........................................

5、............................................-15-原材料价格大幅上涨风险..........................................................................-16-宏观经济波动风险.....................................................................................-16-图表目录图表1：国废黄板纸价格走势........................

6、.....................................................-4-图表2：箱板瓦楞纸库存天数变动趋势..............................................................-4-图表3：废纸进口数量及同比变动趋势..............................................................-5-图表4：2018年外废进口配额情况......................................

7、...............................-5-图表5：废纸产业库存天数变动情况..................................................................-5-图表6：国废与黄板纸回收率.............................................................................-6-图表7：历年箱板瓦楞纸新增产能投放量（万吨）.........................................

8、...-6-图表8：国废与外废价格走势与价差.....................................................