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1、GoldmanSachsAsiaEconomicsAnalystAsiaexportershadsolidandstronger-than-expectedgrowthin2017duetoimprovingactivityofmajortradingpartners.Domesticdemandwasalsorobustinmosteconomies,supportedbygovernmentspendingandjobcreation.OuraggregateCAIforfiveexporteconomies,includingKorea,Malaysia,Singapore,Taiw
2、anandThailand,shows5.4%growthinOctoberona3-monthmovingaveragebasisupfrom4.4%inJulyandrealGDPgrowthof3.0%forQ2(USDGDPweighted)(Exhibit1).Coreinflationremainedbenignatbelow2%,withnopolicyratehikethisyear,asexpected.Exhibit1:ActivityofAsiaexportershasrecentlyreboundedalongwithglobalcyclicalstrengthPe
3、rcentchange,annualizedPercentchange,annualized99CAI(EMAsia)8CAI(DM)8CAI(Asiaexporters)7RealGDP(Asiaexporters)766554433221100201220132014201520162017Source:HaverAnalytics,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearchStrongexportsoutlookonaglobalcapexupturnTheoutlookforAsiaexportersshouldremainpositivein201
4、8giventheongoingexpansionoftheworldeconomy.1TheGSmacroresearchteamexpectsglobaleconomicgrowthtoaccelerateto4.0%nextyear,notablyhigherthanconsensus,fromanestimated3.7%thisyear(seeour“AsGoodAsItGets”,GlobalEconomicsAnalyst,November15,2017).AllthreemajorDMeconomies,theUnitedStates,theEuroAreaandJapa
5、nlooksettocontinuetogrowabovepotentialrates.Inparticular,USgrowthislikelytoaccelerateto2.5%in2018from2.2%thisyear,onfavorablefinancialconditions,taxcutsandpost-hurricanereconstruction.EMgrowthwilllikelyaccelerateonrecoveryinIndia,BrazilandRussia,whileweexpecttheChineseeconomytoslowagain,to6.5%,aft
6、eramodestreboundto6.8%thisyearfrom6.7%in2016.1Exportsofthesefiveeconomiesexceed40%oftheirrespectiveGDPs,higherthanothereconomiesintheregionincludingChina,Japan,India,IndonesiaandthePhilippines.26November20172GoldmanSachsAsiaEconomicsAnalystForourfiveexporteconomies,weexpectexportstoremainstrongin20
7、18,growinginmid-singledigitsinrealtermsthoughwithmodestdeceleration.DemandfromDMwilllikelyberobust,especiallyUSdemand,althoughuncertaintiesseemtopersistontheimpactoftradeprotectionism(see“ImplicationsofpossibleUStradep