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1、GoldmanSachsAsiaEconomicsAnalystAsiaexportershadsolidandstronger-than-expectedgrowthin2017duetoimprovingactivityofmajortradingpartners.Domesticdemandwasalsorobustinmosteconomies,supportedbygovernmentspendingandjobcreation.OuraggregateCAIforfiveexporteconomies,includingKorea,Malaysia,Singapore
2、,TaiwanandThailand,shows5.4%growthinOctoberona3-monthmovingaveragebasisupfrom4.4%inJulyandrealGDPgrowthof3.0%forQ2(USDGDPweighted)(Exhibit1).Coreinflationremainedbenignatbelow2%,withnopolicyratehikethisyear,asexpected.Exhibit1:ActivityofAsiaexportershasrecentlyreboundedalongwithglobalcyclical
3、strengthPercentchange,annualizedPercentchange,annualized99CAI(EMAsia)8CAI(DM)8CAI(Asiaexporters)7RealGDP(Asiaexporters)766554433221100201220132014201520162017Source:HaverAnalytics,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearchStrongexportsoutlookonaglobalcapexupturnTheoutlookforAsiaexportersshouldrema
4、inpositivein2018giventheongoingexpansionoftheworldeconomy.1TheGSmacroresearchteamexpectsglobaleconomicgrowthtoaccelerateto4.0%nextyear,notablyhigherthanconsensus,fromanestimated3.7%thisyear(seeour“AsGoodAsItGets”,GlobalEconomicsAnalyst,November15,2017).AllthreemajorDMeconomies,theUnitedState
5、s,theEuroAreaandJapanlooksettocontinuetogrowabovepotentialrates.Inparticular,USgrowthislikelytoaccelerateto2.5%in2018from2.2%thisyear,onfavorablefinancialconditions,taxcutsandpost-hurricanereconstruction.EMgrowthwilllikelyaccelerateonrecoveryinIndia,BrazilandRussia,whileweexpecttheChineseecon
6、omytoslowagain,to6.5%,afteramodestreboundto6.8%thisyearfrom6.7%in2016.1Exportsofthesefiveeconomiesexceed40%oftheirrespectiveGDPs,higherthanothereconomiesintheregionincludingChina,Japan,India,IndonesiaandthePhilippines.26November20172GoldmanSachsAsiaEconomicsAnalystForourfiveexporteconomies,wee
7、xpectexportstoremainstrongin2018,growinginmid-singledigitsinrealtermsthoughwithmodestdeceleration.DemandfromDMwilllikelyberobust,especiallyUSdemand,althoughuncertaintiesseemtopersistontheimpactoftradeprotectionism(see“ImplicationsofpossibleUStradep
