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1、INDIAIndiaEconomicsGVAgrowthacceleratedinlinewithexpectationsGrowthnormalisationcontinues10%RealGVA(YoY%)Conclusion:AcontinuedaccelerationingrowthinQEDecdepictsthatthelingeringimpactofdemonetizationanddisruptioncausedbyGSTisnowinthe8%6.7%rear-viewmirrorandgrowthisrecoveringwithdemandnormalisation.In
2、coming6%highfrequencygrowthdata(IP,PMI,CVsales,two-wheelersales,cement/steelproduction,includingcoresectordataforJan)forthelastthreemonthshas4%shownthegrowthrecoveryisgatheringpace.WeprefertotracktheGVAgrowth2%moreclosely(morestabledataset),whichshowedgrowthimprovedto6.7%in0%QEDec(inlinewithexpectat
3、ions).WeexpectthisgrowthmomentumtobesustainedandexpectFY18GVAgrowthat6.4%,buildinginQEMargrowthatc-13n-14c-14n-15c-15n-16c-16n-17c-17DeJuDeJuDeJuDeJuDe7–7.1%.OnGDP(atmarketprices),wemaintainourviewthatFY18GDPgrowthwilllikelybeat6.7%,assumingQEMargrowthat~7.4%.Source:CEIC,MacquarieResearch,February20
4、18SummaryofQEDecGDPGDPgrowthpick-uphigherthanQuarterlyrealGDP(atmarketprices)grew7.2%inQEDec,higherthanexpectationsconsensusandourexpectationof7%YoY:Thiscompareswith6.5%YoYgrowthregisteredinQESep-17(revisedupwardsfrom6.3%).Theimprovement10%RealGDP(mp)YoY%wasprimarilyledbyabounceingrossfixedinvestmen
5、t,whichgrewatthe8%7.2%highestratesinceSep-16.ThegovernmentupwardlyreviseditsannualFY18estimateto6.6%from6.5%.6%QuarterlyrealGVAgrew6.7%inQEDec,largelyinlinewithconsensus4%expectationof6.7%andourexpectationof6.8%:Thiscompareswith6.2%2%YoYgrowthregisteredinQESep-17(upwardlyrevisedfrom6.1%).Theimprovem
6、entwasprimarilydrivenbythemanufacturing,constructionand0%servicessegment.Indeed,grossvalueaddedexcludingagricultureandc-12n-13c-13n-14c-14n-15c-15n-16c-16n-17c-17governmentservicesgrew7.4%inQEDec(6.9%inQESep),thesameasinDeJuDeJuDeJuDeJuDeJuDeQESep-16,ie,comingbacktothepre-demonetizationlevel.Thegove
7、rnmentNote:GDP=ΣGVAatbasicprices+Producttaxes-ProductsubsidiesupwardlyreviseditsannualFY18estimateto6.4%from6.1%.Source:CEIC,MacquarieResearch,February2018OutlookforFY19FY19growthoutlook–Expectgrowthn
