麦格理-印度-宏观经济-rbi政策回顾：扩张的停滞

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1、INDIAIndiaEconomicsTrendinpolicyratesRBIpolicyreview–ExtendedpauseWtdAvgCallRateRepoRateReverseRepoMSFConclusion:RBIkeptpolicyratesonhold,asperexpectations.However,the7.2%RBImarginallyraisedthe2HFY18inflationforecastsby10bps,reflectingthe6.8%incomingdata.Wereadthepolicystatementasneutral.Weexp

2、ecttheRBItobe6.4%onanextendedpausewithinflationriskscontainedandgrowthinagradual6.0%recoverymode.Withongoingliquiditytightnesstopersistintothefiscalyear-endweexpectmarketratestoremainunderpressurewhichcouldpotentiallyhurt5.6%financialstocks,particularlyNBFCs,whichhavebeenabeneficiaryofbenign5.

3、2%liquidityconditions.t-16v-16c-16n-17ar-17pr-17n-17l-17ct-17v-17c-17Oceb-17Aay-17Juug-17ep-17ODetailsNoDeJaFMMJuASNoDeSource:CEIC,MacquarieResearch,December2017RBIkeptpolicyratesonhold–inlinewithexpectations:TheRBIkeptpolicyratesunchangedwiththereporate(therateatwhichtheRBIinjectsliquidity)at

4、6.0%inthepolicyreviewtoday.Accordingly,thereverserepoandmarginalTrendinInflationstandingfacility(MSF)ratesstandunchangedat5.75%and6.25%,respectively.FivemembersoftheMPCvotedforstatusquo,whileonemember(Ravindra16%HeadlineCPIinflationYoY%Dholakia)votedfora25bpratecut.TheminutesoftheMPC’smeetingw

5、illbe14%CoreCPIInflation(CPIexpublishedon20thDecandwillrecordtheviewsofeachmember.12%FoodexFuel)10%CPIFoodinflationRBImarginallyraisedinflationprojectionsandretaineditsgrowthestimate:8%TheRBImarginallyincreaseditsinflationexpectationsfor2HFY18to4.3-4.7%6%4%(from4.2-4.6%earlier)takingintoaccoun

6、ttherecentriseinfoodandfuelprices.2%Onthegrowthfront,theRBIretainedtheGVAprojectionat6.7%forFY18,0%expectinganimprovementineconomicactivityin2HFY18.-2%Neutralpolicystanceretained:TheMPCretainedaneutralstanceasitt-12OcApr-13Oct-13Apr-14Oct-14Apr-15Oct-15Apr-16Oct-16Apr-17Oct-17highlightedriskst

7、oinflationandgrowthremainingbalanced,andreaffirmeditsSource:CEIC,MacquarieResearch,December2017commitmenttokeepinginflationclosetothe4%markonadurablebasis.Ourview–Extendedpause:WeexpectRBItokeeppolicyratesonanextendedpausegoingintoFY19a