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1、FlashEconomicsIsthefinancialrepressioninChinadangerous?10January2018-36TexteThereisfinancialrepressioninChina,since:Therearemajorrestrictionsoncapitaloutflows;Interestratesareconsiderablylowerthanthegrowthrate;The"menu"offinancialassetsavailableforinvestingsavingsislimited.Thismeansthata
2、considerableseignorageisleviedinChinabytheChinesegovernmentand,aboveall,byChinesebanksonsavers,whichmakesitpossibletomaintainanextremelylowcostofcapital.ItfavourscapitalaccumulationandgrowthinChina,butleadsto:Ariskofexcessivedebt;Inefficientinvestmentsbeingcarriedoutwithanabnormallyhighca
3、pitalintensity;A"wasteofsavings"ataworldwidelevel.PatrickArtusTel.(331)58551500patrick.artus@natixis.com@PatrickArtuswww.research.natixis.comDistributionofthisreportintheUnitedStates.Seeimportantdisclosuresattheendofthisreport..FlashEconomicsFinancialrepressioninChinaThefinancialrepressio
4、ninChinaisdueto:1-Majorrestrictionsoncapitaloutflows,forprivateindividualsasforcompanies,whichwereinforceuntil2013andreintroducedinearly2017,whichexplainsthesharpdeclineincapitaloutflows(Chart1).Chart1China:Annualisedcapitalflows(inUSDbn)1,5001,5001,0001,00050050000-500-500(*)=12x(month-on-
5、monthchangeinforeignexchange-1,000reserves-tradebalancefor-1,000themonth)-1,500-1,500Sources:Datastream,SAFE,Natixis-2,000-2,00098000204060810121416182-Interestratesbeingkeptconsiderablylowerthanthegrowthrate(Chart2);Chart2China:NominalGDP,interestrateon1-yearbankdeposits,1-yearinterbankrat
6、eandinterestrateon10-yeargovernmentbondsNominalGDP(Y/Yas%)1-yeardepositrate(as%)1-yearinterbankrate(as%)10-yeargovt.interestrate(as%)252520201515101055Sources:Datastream,NBS,Natixis0097990103050709111315173-Alimited"menu"forinvestingdomesticsavings:thepublicdebtissmall,likecompanies’andbank
7、s’bonddebt(Chart3);theequitymarketisquitesmall(Chart4A)andthevariabilityinshareprices(Chart4B)maydiscouragesavers.2FlashEconomicsChart3Chart4AChina:Publicdebtandoutstandingbondsofnon-China:Marketcapitalisation(as%ofnominalGDP)financialcorporations+banks(
