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1、FlashEconomicsEurozone:Howcancrisesbepreventedinthefuture?13November2017-1305Intheeurozone,speculativeattacksareagainstcountries’governmentbondssincetheircurrenciescannolongerbeattacked.Howcanrenewedspeculativeattacksbepreventedintheeurozoneinthefuture?Thequantitativeeasingpr
2、ogramme,withmassivepurchasesbytheECB,hasbeenaneffectiveweaponagainstspeculation,butitwilldisappearin2018;Amutualisationofexistingpublicdebt,whichwouldalsobeeffective,butwhichmanycountriesreject;Thatleavesuswithonlythefollowingsolution:-Eachofthecountriesmusthavestrongfiscals
3、olvency,whichpreventssolvencycrisesandtheriseintheriskpremiathatwouldresultfromexpectationsofadebtrestructuring;-Aspublicdebtcrisesarethenliquiditycrises(withoutstrongfiscalsolvency,itwouldbedifficulttodistinguishbetweenasolvencycrisisandaliquiditycrisis),theeurozonemusthaveth
4、ecapacitytoreacttoliquiditycrisesbydealingwithpublicdebt(transformationoftheESMintoaeuro-zoneIMF).PatrickArtusTel.(331)58551500patrick.artus@natixis.com@PatrickArtuswww.research.natixis.comCORPORATE&INVESTMENTBANKINGINVESTMENTSOLUTIONS&INSURANCESPECIALIZEDFINANCIALSERVICESDist
5、ributionofthisreportintheUnitedStates.Seeimportantdisclosuresattheendofthisreport..FlashEconomicsIntheeurozone,speculativeattacksareagainstcountries’governmentbondsInthepast,speculativeattacksinEuropewereagainstcountries’currencies(forexamplein1992-93,Chart1).Nowadaysintheeuro
6、zone,theyareagainstcountries’governmentbonds(Charts2AandB).Chart1Chart2AExchangerateagainsttheDeutschemarkYieldspreadoncountries'10-yeargovernmentbondsagainstGermany(as%)1001,3001616ESP(Spain)/DEM(LHS)ITL(Italy)/DEM(RHS)1,20014Spain1490Italy12121,100Portugal1010801,00088900667
7、044800602270000Sources:Datastream,NatixisSources:Datastream,Natixis50600-2-285868788899091929394959697980203040506070809101112131415161718Chart2BGreece:Yieldspreadon10-yeargovernmentbondsagainstGermany(as%)5050404030302020Sources:Datastream,Natixis10100002030405060708091011121
8、31415161718Sowhatcanbedonetopreventrenewedspeculativecrisesin
