那提西银行-德国-经济理论-德国会“死于富有”么？

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1、FlashEconomicsWillGermany"dierich"?11December2017-1423Germanywillberich:thepublicdebtisgraduallydisappearing;private-sectorwealthisincreasingasaresultofthehighhouseholdandcorporatesavingsrates;significantexternalassetsarebeingaccumulated.ButwillthisGermanwealthnotaccompanythecountry’sd

2、ecline?Thereisindeedreasontobeconcernedabout:Thestagnationofproductivityandinvestment;Germany'sdependenceonthe"old"economy,industry(automotive,industrialcapitalgoods);Thestructureofenergyproduction(coal,etc.)andtherequiredcorrectioniftheclimatetargetsmustbecompliedwith;Thefactthatw

3、orldwideproductionismovingclosertotheconsumers,whichthreatenstheGermangrowthmodelbasedonexports.PatrickArtusTel.(331)58551500patrick.artus@natixis.com@PatrickArtuswww.research.natixis.comCORPORATE&INVESTMENTBANKINGINVESTMENTSOLUTIONS&INSURANCESPECIALIZEDFINANCIALSERVICESDistributionoft

4、hisreportintheUnitedStates.Seeimportantdisclosuresattheendofthisreport..FlashEconomicsGermanywillberichThereasonsareasfollows:-Thankstoitsbudgetsurpluses,Germany'spublicdebtisgraduallydisappearing(Chart1);-AsaresultofthehighGermanhouseholdssavingsrateandGermancompanies’highprofitabilit

5、y(Chart2A),private-sectorwealthisincreasing(Chart2B);-Duetotheexternalsurpluses(Chart3A),Germanyisaccumulatingexternalassets(Chart3B).Chart1Germany:Fiscaldeficitandpublicdebt(as%ofnominalGDP)Publicdebt(LHS)85Budgetdeficit/surplus(RHS)180075-170-265-360-4Sources:Datastream,Natixis55-598

6、99000102030405060708091011121314151617Chart2AChart2BGermany:GrosshouseholdsavingsrateandprofitsGermany:Householdpropertywealthandmarketaftertax,interestanddividendscapitalisation(as%ofnominalGDP)Grosshouseholdsavingsrate(as%ofhouseholdGDI)250Householdpropertywealth250Profitsaftertax,in

7、terestanddividends(as%ofnominalGDP)1818Marketcapitalisation1616200200141415015012121001001010505088Sources:Datastream,Eurostat,NatixisSources:Datastream,Natixis660098000204060810121416189800020406081012141618Chart3AChart3BGermany:Current-accountbalanceGermany:Netexternalassets*(as%of