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1、FlashEconomicsHasGermanyforgottenthe1992-93crisis?29November2017-1409Thebreak-upoftheEuropeanMonetarySystemin1992-93withasteepdepreciationofSpain’sandItaly’sexchangeratesagainstGermanyhadlong-lastingandnegativeimpactsontheGermaneconomy.Thisbreak-upwa
2、sduetothenon-cooperativepoliciesconductedbyGermany:itsetinterestrateswithouttakingintoaccounttheeffectsonothercountries;itdidnottakepartintheefforttostabiliseexchangerates.Germanyisnowonceagainconductingnon-cooperativepolicieswithrespecttotheothereur
3、o-zonecountries:persistentbudgetsurpluses,investmentofGermany'ssavingssurplusoutsidetheeurozone,rejectionoffederalismfortheeurozone.Germanyseemstohaveforgottenthatitsrejectionofcooperativepoliciesin1992-93triggeredacurrencycrisisthatwashighlydetrimen
4、talforGermany.PatrickArtusTel.(331)58551500patrick.artus@natixis.com@PatrickArtuswww.research.natixis.comCORPORATE&INVESTMENTBANKINGINVESTMENTSOLUTIONS&INSURANCESPECIALIZEDFINANCIALSERVICESDistributionofthisreportintheUnitedStates.Seeimportantdisclos
5、uresattheendofthisreport..FlashEconomicsThecausesofthebreak-upoftheEuropeanMonetarySystemin1992-93Thebreak-upoftheEuropeanMonetarySystemin1992-93(Chart1)washighlydetrimentalforGermany:theappreciationoftheDeutschemarkworsenedthecountry’sindustrialcomp
6、etitiveness,leadingtoenduringweaknessinGermanyintheareasofforeigntrade,industry,investment,employment,etc.(Charts2A,BandC).Chart1Chart2AExchangerateagainsttheDeutschemarkGermany:Tradebalanceandexportsinvolumeterms100Spain(DEM1=ESP...,LHS)1,30025Trade
7、balance(as%ofnominalGDP)25Italy(DEM1=ITL...,RHS)Exportsinvolumeterms(Y/Yas%)1,2002020901,1001515801,000101090055708000060700-5Sources:Datastream,-5Destatis,Eurostat,Sources:Datastream,Natixis50600-10-10858687888990919293949596979885878991939597990103
8、05Chart2BChart2CGermany:ManufacturingproductionandproductiveGermany:RealGDPgrowthandunemploymentrateinvestmentinvolumetermsUnemploymentrate(as%,LHS)11.510150Manufacturingproduction12RealGDP(Y/Yas%,RHS)(1985:1=100,LHS)11.08Productiveinvestmentinvolume
