德银-中国-金属与采矿业-中国锂行业：又一个好年景

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1、ChinaLithiumIndustryDeutscheBankMarketsResearchAsiaIndustryDateChina6November2017ChinaLithiumResourcesMetals&MiningIndustryRecommendationChangeAnothergoodyearpricedin;u/g2018ASPbutHoldChineseLithiumstocksJamesKanResilientlithiumcompoundpriceexplainedbysupplydisappointmentResearchAna

2、lystWebelievethelithiumcompoundsproductionoutputneedsmoretimetogettractioninChina,anddomesticsupplydisappointmentexplainsthebattery-grade+852-22036146lithiumcarbonatepriceincreasebyc.9%/10%in2Q17/3Q17.AfterexaminingtheNeilSunlatesteffectivecapacitylandscape,webelieveresilientlithiumc

3、ompoundpricingResearchAssociatecouldpotentiallyextendinto2018.Meanwhile,moreinvestmentsintothefield+852-22036136shouldleadtoaslightlyfasterprocessingcapacityexpansioninthelongerterm,andreach425ktpain2020E.WeupgradeTianqitoHoldfromSellonnewpricingKeyChangesandvolumeassumptions,butdown

4、gradeGanfengtoHoldfromBuyaswebelieveCompanyTargetPriceRatinghasalreadyfactoredinthepositivecatalysts.002466.SZ41.00to70.70SelltoHold002460.SZ50.00to75.10BuytoHoldTianqi:tightnessinlithiumcompoundS/DbenefitsindustryleaderSource:DeutscheBankTianqiannouncedanaggressivecapacityexpansionp

5、lantoreach105ktpainCompaniesfeatured2020E,orthree-foldcomparedtoYE2017.Givende-bottleneckingprocessinTianqiLithium(002466.SZ),CNY75.49Holdexistinglines(9ktpa),newcapacityinWesternAustralia(48ktpa),andplanto2016A2017E2018Enearlydoubletheupstreamrawmaterialsupplyfrom2Q19,webelievetheP

6、/E(x)25.934.229.5companywillfurtherstrengthenitsindustry-leadingpositionintermsofvolumeEV/EBITDA(x)16.322.419.3stabilityandproductquality.Price/book(x)7.011.57.2GanfengLithium(002460.SZ),CNY87.11HoldGanfeng:decentfundamentalsbutpositivesarealreadyintheprice2016A2017E2018EGanfeng'sin

7、crementalspodumeneconcentratesupplyfromMt.MarioninP/E(x)47.444.428.3Australiahasnotreacheditsideal6%gradesofar,butweexpecttheissuetoEV/EBITDA(x)32.519.310.3beresolvedafterend1Q18withthehelpofbeneficiationplant.Inthemeantime,Price/book(x)8.017.211.1therecentlyproposedrestrictivestocki

8、ncentiveprogramand4