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1、INDIAIndiaEconomicsGDPgrowthbouncesto6.3%afterfiveGradualgrowthrecoveryunderwayquartersofdecelerationConclusion:AbounceinGDPgrowthinQESepto6.3%depictsthatagradual10%RealGDP(mp)YoY%healingoftheeconomyisunderwaypostthedisruptioncausedby8%demonetizationandimplementationofGST.Weexp
2、ecttheactivitymomentum6.3%6%tosustainin2HFY18andGDPgrowthtoimproveto~7.2%YoYfrom6.0%in5.7%1HFY18,keepingthefullyearFY18growthat6.7%.Whiletherecouldbe4%downsideriskstothegrowthestimatefrompossiblylowergovernmentspending2%anduncertaintyaroundcapexgrowthin2HFY18,iftheexitgrowthrat
3、eforQE0%Mar-18isaround7%,itwillbeareasonableoutcomeinourview.WeexpectRBItokeeppolicyratesunchangedinthereviewnextweek,giventheinflationep-12SJan-13May-13Sep-13Jan-14May-14Sep-14Jan-15May-15Sep-15Jan-16May-16Sep-16Jan-17May-17Sep-17trajectoryisexpectedtomovehigherandtoday’sdatas
4、howssomerecoveryingrowthisunderway.Note:GDP=ΣGVAatbasicprices+Producttaxes-ProductsubsidiesSummaryofQESepGDPandoutlookforFY19Source:CEIC,MacquarieResearch,November2017QuarterlyrealGDP(atmarketprices)grewby6.3%YoYinQESep-17vs.consensusandourexpectationsof6.4%YoY:Thiscompareswith
5、5.7%YoYConsumptiondeceleratedwhilecapexgrowthregisteredinQEJun-17.Similarly,growthmeasuredonaGVA(grossimprovedinQESepvalueadded)basisstoodat6.1%YoYinQESep-17(consensusexpectationof14%ConsumptionGFCF6.2%YoY)vs.5.6%YoYintheQEJun-17.12%YoY%Highfrequencygrowthhadsuggestedaturninact
6、ivitypostGSTrelated10%8%disruption:Thehighfrequencydatathatwetracksuchasautosales,industrial6%production,coresectoroutput,corporateprofits,etc.hadshownanimprovement4%inQESep.Indeed,grossvalueaddedexcludingagricultureandgovernment2%servicesgrewby6.8%inQESepvs.5.5%inQEJun,reflect
7、ingnormalisationin0%activitypostGSTrelateddisruption.-2%n-13n-14n-15n-16n-17ExpectgrowthnormalisationinFY19:WeexpectGDPgrowthtonormalisetoep-12ay-13ep-13ay-14ep-14ay-15ep-15ay-16ep-16ay-17ep-17SJaMSJaMSJaMSJaMSJaMSapprox.7.2%bYoYinFY19,basedoncontinuedsupportfromconsumption,rec
8、overyinexportsandpublicinfracapexspending.Source:CEIC,
