麦格里集团-菲律宾策略-philippines strategy：how a weaker peso impacts our top picks-20170712-macquarie

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1、PHILIPPINESPhilippinesStrategyPhilippinesectoralvaluationHowaweakerpesoimpactsourtoppicks2018E2018E2018E2018E2018EepsgrPERPBVROEYldConclusionSector(%)(x)(x)(%)(%)Banks20.013.81.512.01.5WehaveanOVERWEIGHTstanceonthePhilippines,notwithstandingtheConsum

2、er10.724.73.615.41.6recentweaknessinthepeso.TherevivalofthisnegativefactoronceagainConglomerate12.618.32.213.41.4Property11.325.03.012.51.5since1Q17compelsustohighlighthowitimpactsourbeststockideas.Telecoms5.915.73.221.83.8Utilities3,214.92.518.13.8Im

3、pactPhilippines13.816.12.514.11.8AyalaLand(ALIPM)–Higherdemandforresiandoffice.AweakerpesoPricesasof12July2017.canpotentiallyhaveapositiveeffectonALI,asOFWsandforeignerswillSource:Bloomberg,MacquarieResearch,July2017havehigherpurchasingpoweroverresid

4、ential.Inaddition,thecompany’sPhilippinetoppicksofficesegmentwillalsobenefit,assettinguporexpandingBPOoperationsinthePhilippineswillbecheaper.Ontheotherhand,ALI’sdollar-denominatedMktPricePTcapTSRdebtisjustlessthan1%oftotalloans.CoRec(P)(P)US$bn(%)Vol

5、UniversalRobina(URCPM)–Mitigantsinplace.OfURC’srawmaterials,MBTO95.151036.09.5LBDOO124.20132.5010.78.3L60%isUSD-denominated.Basedonoursensitivities,weestimatea~4.5%PGOLDO45.90492.57.5L/MdropinprofitforeveryP1.00depreciationvstheUSD,assumingURCdoesACO

6、8761,07510.723.2Lnotpassthison.URC,however,raisedprices2–3%inDecember2016andURCO162.601907.118.8LBPIO103.101218.019.0L2.5–3.0%inFeb/Mar2017,whichshouldhelptempertheadverseimpactofaGTCAPO1,2001,5804.633.6L/MweakerPHP.WebelieveURChaspricingpower,especia

7、llyincategoriesinALIO41.5544.0012.17.0L/Mwhichitdominates–itisnumberoneinsnacks,candies,chocolates,cupPricesasof12July2017.noodlesandRTDtea.AweakerPHPalsostrengthensthepurchasingpowerSource:Bloomberg,MacquarieResearch,July2017ofOFWmoney(akeydriverofdo

8、mesticconsumption),whichcouldenableconsumerstoabsorbsuchpricehikes.URCalsocontinuestopushitshigher-Toppicksvaluationmarginproducts(asittapstheaffordablepremiumsegment)andis2018E2018E2018E2018E2018ErationalizingitsSKUs,whichshouldfreeupsomecost