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1、JAPANJapanmacro-strategyTOPIXandMSCIACAsia-ex(inUS$,indexedto100asofstart2011)Internationalisation&ROEs140(Jan'11=100)Webelieveinvestorsneedtorotatefrom“cyclicalvalue”intocompaniesMSCIACAsiaexJP130TOPIXwithhighROEs,andthisappliesevenwithintheinternationalisationthematic
2、.120Companiesseekinggrowthoverseasisexpectedtoremainoneofthemajor110usesofcorporatecash-flow.In-OutM&Aremainsnearhistorichighs,Fig7.100OurinternationalisationbasketsareshowninFig3;thereare61companies.90TheaverageROEofthosethathaveatleastdoubledinsharepricesinceend802007
3、is14.6%(14companies,highlightedinpaleredinFig3).TOPIXrose7010.0%fromend-2007tolatest,Fig4.TheaverageROEoftheother471101/07/1101/1207/1201/1307/1301/1407/1401/1507/1501/1607/1601/17companiesis8.6%.ThetopfourROEcompaniesinthebasketsareshownSource:FactSet,MacquarieResearch
4、,June2017below.TOPIX,2014starttolatest(inYen)TopfourROEcompaniesinourinternationalizationbaskets1700UpsideVolatility1600StockTickerAnalystnameRecC/PT/P(%)indexSoftBank9984DavidGibsonOP9,21710,90018.3Medium1500M32413NR3,2101400Sysmex6869NR6,770TokyoElectron8035DamianThon
5、gOP16,02518,55015.8Medium1300Note:Pricesareasof20June2017.ThehistoricROEsoftheabovefourcompanies,fromthetopdownare28.3%,26.2%,20.4%and19.0%respectively(pleaseseeFig3)1200Source:FactSet,MacquarieResearch,June2017TOPIX1100Jan/14Jul/14Jan/15Jul/15Jan/16Jul/16Jan/17Japanese
6、traditions:webelievethereareopportunitiesin“cyclicalvalue”Source:FactSet,MacquarieResearch,June2017namesintheyearaftertheOECDLItroughsandinflects.ThelatterlastoccurredinFebruary-March2016.AtothertimeswebelieveJapanisastock-Japan-relatedmacroreportspickingmarketwithinves
7、torsneedingtofocusonhighROEcompanies.ForJapan’sdebt-deleveragingmarathonsomehighROEcompaniesexposedtotheJapaneseagingdemographicsTheUS-Japanrelationshiptheme,pleaseseeourTheAffluentElderlyreport.FinancialrepressionfordecadesWeexpectTOPIXtocontinuetorange-trade:our12-mon
8、thTPis1660,15.0timesFY2EPS(the12monthstoend-June2019).Myth-busting:JapanesewagesTheMacquarieMarqueeideasareour
