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1、ASIAJapanmacro-strategyTOPIXandMSCIACAsia-ex(inUS$,TheAffluentElderlyindexedto100asofstart2011)140(Jan'11=100)Itistimetorotatefrom“globalcyclicals”todomesticopportunities:theMSCIACAsiaexJP130globalindustrialrecoveryisintheprocessofpeaking,andconsensusearningsTOPIX120forecastsforTOPIXha
2、vealreadyrolledover.110Japan’saffluentelderly(householdheadover65yearsoldwiththehousehold100incomeoverUS$50,000pa)isamassivemarketthatwillcontinuetogrow.The90affluentelderlyareapproximately20%ofJapan’spopulationand30%ofannual80consumption.TheirtotalincomeisequaltoabouthalfofItalianGDP.
3、70Webelievetheaboveleadstodemographicopportunitiesrelatedtoincreased1101/07/1101/1207/1201/1307/1301/1407/1401/1507/1501/1607/1601/17discretionaryexpenditurese.g.luxurygoods,remodelledhomes,andincreasedwellness&healthexpenditures:fromskincareandnutritionalsupplementsSource:FactSet,Macq
4、uarieResearch,June2017throughtomedicalexpenses:TOPIX,2014starttolatest(inYen)InlinewithourstrategicfocusonhighROEs,somestockideasarehighlighted1700below.Morecomprehensivetablesofcompaniesexposedtothethemeareonpages5-7.16001500Some“TheAffluentElderly”stockideas,minimumROEof15%1400Upside
5、VolatilityStockTickerAnalystnameRecC/PT/P(%)index1300Olympus7733DamianThongOP3,9404,95025.6Medium1200Cyberagent4751DavidGibsonOP3,6554,14013.3MediumTOPIXKao4452SatsukiKawasakiN6,8186,000-12.0Low/Medium1100Jan/14Jul/14Jan/15Jul/15Jan/16Jul/16Jan/17Hoya7741DamianThongN5,4955,250-4.5Low/M
6、ediumDaiwaHouse1925WilliamMontgomeryOP3,7174,20013.0MediumSource:FactSet,MacquarieResearch,June2017Note:Pricesareasof14June2017.HistoricROEs,fromthetopnamedown,are19.3%,18.8%,18.7%,17.3%and16.3%:pleaseseepages5-7insideJapan-relatedmacroreportsSource:FactSet,MacquarieResearch,June2017Ja
7、pan’sdebt-deleveragingmarathonWeexpectTOPIXtocontinuetorangetrade:our12-monthTPis1660,15.0TheUS-JapanrelationshiptimesFY2EPS(the12monthstoend-June2019).FinancialrepressionfordecadesTheMacquarieMarqueeideasareourhighestconvictionanalystcalls.Myth-busting:JapanesewagesFactoryAsia’s2018
