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1、JAPANJapanmacro-strategyTOPIXandMSCIACAsia-ex(inUS$,Entrepreneurs&HighROEsindexedto100asofstart2011)140(Jan'11=100)WebelieveinvestorsneedtorotateintocompanieswithhighROEs,withMSCIACAsiaexJP130sectorsdominatedbyfounderentrepreneurs,BiotechandtheInternet,anareaTOPIX120worthinvestiga
2、tingforinvestmentideas.110Withglobalgrowthexpectedtodeceleratethrough2018-19,weforecastlow100nominalandrealbondyieldspersistingformanyyears.Webelievefinancial90repressioncouldpersistfordecades.Inouropinion,lowbondyieldsfacilitate80highvaluationsforaggressivegrowthcompaniesthatdeli
3、ver.70ComparedtoTOPIX,theMothersIndexisamorefounder/entrepreneurial/11/11/12/12/13/13/14/14/15/15/16/16/1701070107010701070107010701index,page2.WeexpectittooutperformTOPIXinaperiodoflowbondyields.Source:FactSet,MacquarieResearch,June2017MothersindexperformancerelativetoTOPIX&aBiot
4、echbasket,Strategysummary:350(2013=100)TSEMothersindexrelativetoTOPIXBiotechnologyWebelieveJapaneseequitiesareinaperiod300whentheglobalcycleisnotdrivingpositiveearningsrevisions.Instead,webelievewe250areinastockpickingenvironmentandbased200onhistoricalexperiencethebestperformersar
5、eassociatedwithhighROEs—anaverage150of16.2%acrossallofthetablesinthelinked100report.Weshowcasehigh-ROEcompaniesbytheme:AgingJapan,Internationalisation,50Founder/entrepreneurs(thisreport)01/201307/201301/201407/201401/201507/201501/201607/201601/2017Note:TheBiotechcompositeisanequa
6、l-weightedindexofthecompanynamesthatfollow:AngesMG,TransGenic,MedibicGroup,Medinet,OncotherapyScience,Soiken,DNAChipJapan-relatedmacroreportsResearch,SoseiGroup,PharmaFoodsInternational,GNI,JapanTissueEngineeringCo.(J-Tec),NanoCarrier,CarnaBiosciences,R-TechUeno,Tella,CanBas,D.Wes
7、ternTherapeuticsJapan’sdebt-deleveragingmarathonSource:FactSet,MacquarieResearch,June2017TheUS-JapanrelationshipFinancialrepressionfordecadesDavidGibson’sInternetsectorcoverage,OutperformshighlightedMyth-busting:JapanesewagesCodeStockRecC/PT/P(%)ROECommentsFactoryAsia’s2018-20outl
8、ook3938LINEUP4,0552,800-30.99.8Ma
