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1、JAPANJapanmacro-strategyStrategysummary:BigbusinessandpolicyprioritiesWebelieveJapaneseequitiesareinaperiodwhentheglobalcycleisnotdrivingpositiveOurlonggrindingcyclethesisofmoderateglobalgrowthiscontinuingtoearningsrevisions.Instead,webelievewethreatenpoliticalinc
2、umbents.Electoratesappeartoneedfastergrowth.areinastock-pickingenvironmentandbasedPMAbe’srecentlossofpopularityisexpectedtoresultinintra-LDPturbulence.onhistoricalexperience,thebestperformersWebelievebigbusinesswillcontinuetodriveLDPpolicypriorities.Thetoptwoareas
3、sociatedwithhighROEs—anaveragerevealedprioritiesofthelastfouryearsof1)corporaterevitalizationand2)fiscalof16.2%acrossallofthetablesinthelinkedreconstructionviafinancialrepressionarenotatrisk,inouropinion.report.WeshowcasehighROEcompaniesbytheme:AgingJapan,Internat
4、ionalisation,Founder/entrepreneurs&largecashSupportfortheAbecabinet,January2013tolatest,%infavourbalances%Approval80.0AsahiNikkeiTheMacquarieMarqueeideas:ourhighestconvictionanalystcalls60.0StockTickerRecC/PT/P%40.0SakataSeed1377OP3,4403,80010.5DaiwaHouse1925OP3,8
5、374,2009.520.0SumitomoHeavy.6302OP8181,00022.2MinebeaMitsumi6479OP1,8892,40027.10.0MitsubishiElectric6503OP1,7001,8156.8NissanMotor7201OP1,1421,60040.2an-13Nintendo7974OP35,77055,00053.8JApr-13Jul-13Oct-13Jan-14Apr-14Jul-14Oct-14Jan-15Apr-15Jul-15Oct-15Jan-16Apr-1
6、6Jul-16Oct-16Jan-17Apr-17Jul-17Marubeni8002OP73690022.2Source:AsahiShimbun,Nikkei,MacquarieResearch,July2017MitsubishiEstate8802OP2,0032,90044.8Note:Pricesareasof26July2017WeexpectbigbusinesstomakeanaggressivegrowthpushtheLDP-Source:FactSet,MacquarieResearch,July2
7、017platforminthenextLowerHouseGeneralelection,tobeheldnolaterthanDecember2018.A“Goforgrowth”platformcouldinclude:Japan-relatedmacroreports1)PostponingtheOctober2019scheduledconsumptiontaxrateincreaseJapan’sdebt-deleveragingmarathon(from8%to10%)TheUS-Japanrelations
8、hip2)SwappingtheBOJ’sexistingholdingsintoazerocouponperpetualbond,facilitatinganotherfiscalpush.includinganothermajorreductionFinancialrepressionfordeca
