麦格里集团-印尼策略-indonesia strategy：pump~priming into 2018-20170712-macquarie

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1、INDONESIAIndonesiaStrategyModelportfolioPump-priminginto2018MarketShareTargetPERcappriceRecprice(x)TickerUS$mRp/shRp/sh17eConclusionBBCA33,71018,325OP20,40019.4BBRI26,91914,625OP15,10012.3Thelatestgovernmentbudgetrevision(APBN-P)for2017indicatesaUNTR7,78627,975OP32,00014.3INTP4,7451

2、7,275OP18,80019.4determinationtopushspendingthrough2H17toprimegrowthto5.2%byADRO*3,8571,615NR-9.0year-end.Latestrevenuetrendsandanexpandedfiscaldeficitto2.9%ofBDMN3,4974,890OP6,00010.6EXCL2,5683,220OP4,40039.7GDP(vs2.4%previously)indicatespendinggrowthof+12.8%y/yduringPTPP*1,4723,180

3、NR-14.42H17.ACES1,3691,070OP1,10025.5MAPI7806,300OP7,50031.4Beneficiariesarepublic-sector-spending-linkedcontractorsandcement.Bank*Denotesconsensusestimates.Pricedatclose11JulBTNappearsnegativelyimpactedwithsubsidyreallocationstakenfromthe2017.Source:FactSet,MacquarieResearch,July20

4、17subsidisedmortgagescheme(FLPP).TheGov’tappearstohavekeptsubsidiesformicro/SMEloansforKURunchanged(Rp10t),affectingBRI.ImpactLesstaxes,moreborrowing.ThegovernmenthasreduceditstaxassumptionbyRp48ttoRp1,451tbutgivenitselfmorespendingammunitionvstheinitial2017budget(+Rp31ttoRp2,111t).

5、Theexpansionisbeingfundedthroughahigherfiscaldeficitof2.9%GDP(vs2.4%previously).S&PnotedatitsrecentsovereignratingupgradethatitexpectedIndonesiatoremainaround2.5%;thelegalcapis3.0%.Higherenergycostimpacts.GovernmentsubsidiesareupbyRp22t(US$1.65b)ledbyenergy(LPGcanistersandelectricit

6、y).Tariffadjustmentsforlow-incomehouseholdsarenowdonebutthegovernment’sassumptiononenergycostsandanestimated3mpaadditionaleligibleconnectionscreatemoreburdenonstate-ownedelectricutilityPLN.CreditsubsidiseswerereducedbyRp2.8ttoRp13t.Weproject+12.8%spendinggrowthin2H17.Therun-ratereve

7、nuecollectionyeartodateremainsontracktoreachourRp1,650testimate(firstdiscussedinourrecentreporthere).ToMay2017,taxreceiptscontinuetotrackbelowGovernmentestimates(32%),butnon-taxrevenuesareahead(51%).OutlookBudgetwinners:Wecontinuetoseepublic-works-relatedcompaniesincludingcontractor

8、sandcementas