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1、ASIAAsiaMicroStrategyInsideWhatwillcorporatesdowith$2.5trn?AnalysisofAsia’slistedcorporatesector2Ouranalysisofnon-financialfirmsfromAsiaexJapansuggeststhataggregateCorporateleverage:Moderating8balancesheetsarebecomingcash-rich.WhiletherehasbeensignificantAs
2、iaexlistedcorporatesectorvs.US13investorfocusontheperilsofrisingcorporateleverage,webelievethatinvestorsunder-appreciatethatAsiannon-financialfirmscurrentlyholdmorethanInvestmentimplications15$2.5trnofcash(2016),whichnowaccountsfor~16%ofassets(andrising).Ap
3、pendices19ThisisahigherratiothanintheUS,wherelistednon-financialfirmshold11%ofassetsincash.WebelieveAsia’scashpilewillcontinuetoswell.CashonAsianBalanceSheetsOurconclusionsareunderpinnedbyproprietaryanalysiswhereweaggregatedcontinuestoswellandiscloseto~6,80
4、0listednon-financialfirmsfromAsiaexJapan(includingChina-Ashare$2.5trn(end2016)firms).Fourkeytrendsemergefromthisanalysisofbroadcorporatesector:3,000,000CAGR12-1616.7%Overallcorporateleverageismoderating:Amidimprovingearnings(drivenbyAvgy/y12-1616.8%2,500,00
5、0recoveryincommodities),overallcorporateleveragemoderatedasatendof2,000,000FY2016.Thereisnodenyingthatfartoomanyfirmsstillsufferfromfinancial1,500,000stress(~31%),buttheproportionofsuch‘stressed’companiesisdeclining.Our1,000,000analysisshowsthatarelativelys
6、mallproportionofhighlyindebtedfirmshold500,000mostofregionaldebt.Chinaisnodifferentfromothers.WhilerisingChinese-corporateleverageremainsasourceof‘systemic’risk,aggregatedfinancialsof20122013201420152016listedcorporatesectorarefarmorerobustthanheadlinessugg
7、est.OurChinaCash+STInvest(US$mn)economistLarryHumaintainshisviewthatcorporateleverageislargelyanSOENote:Aggregatedbasedon~6,800non-financiallistedissue,withthegovernmenthavingampleroomtomitigateanychaoticfallout.firmsfromAsiaexJP.Source:MacquarieResearch,Ju
8、ne2017Capexgrowthismuted(akintoUScorporates):Forthefirsttimesince2009,AsiaexJapan‘CashCows’*overallcapexbyAsia-exnon-financialfirmsfellonay-ybasis.WhileresourceUpside/sectorsdrovethisdecline,capextrend
