麦格里-台湾-股票策略-台湾策略：台股持续攀升-20170904-taiwan strategy：taiex keeps on climbing-macquarie

《麦格里-台湾-股票策略-台湾策略：台股持续攀升-20170904-taiwan strategy：taiex keeps on climbing-macquarie》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。

1、TAIWANTaiwanStrategyTopSeptemberpicksTAIEXkeepsonclimbingOutperformUnderperformTechAirTAC(1590TT)Delta(2308TT)Ararenon-techoutperformanceinAugustNontechBasso(1527TT)Eclat(1476TT)FinE.Sun(2884TT)MegaFHC(2886TT)TheTAIEXwasup1.5%MoMinAugust,outperformingtheregion,andSource:MacquarieResearch,

2、September2017continuingitsstreakofallpositivemonthsYTD.AugustwasthefirstmonthinQFIImonthlyfundflow(2016-2017YTD)2017thatnon-techoutperformed(+2.1%MoM)tech.TAIEX/Tech/Non-tech/Finanicalsareup14.4%/21.5%/6.4%/6.1%YTD.(NT$bn)200TheTaiwandollarappreciatedsevenoutofeightmonthsin2017andisup1506

3、.4%YTD.Thebiggestcurrencymoverintheregion(N.Asia/GreaterChina)10050wastheCNY,whichwasup2%,andafterfourmonthsofappreciationina0rowisupover5%YTD.-50-100-150TheforeignbuyingstreakendedinJuly(US$8.5bninflowsin1H17)versusacombinedminorsellingofUS$300mninJuly+August.Nochangetoour2017year-endTA

4、IEXforecastof10,800(15.5x2017QFIImonthlyfundflowearningsvs10-yearaverage16x),and2018year-endforecastof11,300(15x2018consensusestimates).OurNT$forecastfor2017/18isNT$30perUS$.Source:TEJ,MacquarieResearch,September2017AugustTaiwankeyreports:KeyeventsinTaiwanthismonthare:2017TaipeiIntn’lIndu

5、strialAutomationExhibition(Sept6-9)andSemiconTaiwan(Sept13-15).Macronix-ANOR&ROMrenaissance(+NAND)SectoroverviewandtoppicksMacquariepicks:Wecurrentlycover90stocks(50tech,33non-tech,7financials)inTaiwan.AlthoughtechP/Ehascaughtuptonon-techP/E(seeFig11)forthefirsttimesince2012,wecontinueto

6、favourtechovernon-techasweare:1)bullishonthesemiconductorcyclein2017/18(aftertwoflattishyearsin2015/16),2)areexpectingastrongiPhonecycle(thatshouldlastinto2018),and3)expectcontinuedspendingandgrowthintheautomationandAnalyst(s)MacquarieCapitalLimited,TaiwanSecuritiesautoelectronicssectors.W

7、ehave26Outperformsinthetechspace(12inBranchsemiconductorrelated),16innon-tech(5inconsumer)and3inFinancials.JeffreyOhlweilerOurhighestconcentrationofUnderperformsareintextiles,petrochem,and+886227347512jeffrey.ohlweiler@macquarie.comdownstreamtechandcomponents(